The Dubai Turf (15:30, Meydan) looks a hot renewal this year with plenty of Group One winners having a crack, yet the favourite Zarak is not one of them and has his place in the market because of regal breeding and potential.
Perhaps that’s a little unfair, as he twice came second to Europe’s best turf horse Almanzor last season and he easily won a Group Three at Meydan in preparation for this.
It was a taking performance and proved he’s in good nick, whilst most of the British and Irish challenge are returning from a break and might not be 100%.
Those comments are likely to apply to the likeable Ribchester, who took a while to really get going last season but ended the season as one of Europe’s best three-year-old milers.
This represents a step up in trip by one furlong too, so there are plenty of reasons to take him on with races like the Lockinge Stakes in British summer season likely to be his primary targets.
Mutakayyef is another who holds his form well at Group One level, but unfortunately that form has so far been shy of winning form, and he’s not of much interest after a break.
It’s difficult to see any of Aidan O’Brien’s three runners (Long Island Sound, Deauville and Cougar Mountain) winning this either, given they are not his best horses and are also likely to have their main targets later in the year.
Roger Charlton’s Decorated Knight won a Group One at Meydan last month so arrives in good nick, but this is undoubtedly a deeper race and a repeat of his late surging tactics will be very difficult to pull off in this field.
He’ll need to improve again to figure, but that’s not out of the question and he’s the right price at 9/1 if you want to play.
Rather, in such an open race I’m going to put my money on the Japanese filly VIVLOS at a big price of 25/1.
The Japanese have a really good record at this meeting and their Just A Way won this race in a ridiculously fast time a few years back, while Vivlos has what many argue to be the best jockey in flat racing on her back in Joao Moreira, which is a huge plus.
It’s often Japanese jockeys that cost their horses their chance with overly-patient hold-up tactics on the world stage, but the Hong Kong-based Moreira is a master at his craft and you can be certain he’ll give his mount the best chance.
Vivlos has some nice form in the book having won a Group One in her homeland, and clearly possesses a striking turn of foot, while she arrives having had a prep run – a respectable fifth back in Japan – just a month ago.
She’s not carrying the loftiest of Japanese hopes compared to some of her compatriots that have raced on this card before, but she’s by the same sire as most of those winners in Deep Impact and is very unexposed on the international stage, so I’m not really sure how the bookies have come up with her 25/1 quote.
It seems good each-way value to me – though I’d probably agree that Zarak is the most likely winner.
0.5pt each-way Vivlos @25/1, 15:30 Meydan, Saturday (Paddy Power, 1,2,3, 1/5)
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