0.5pts win Tupi @40/1, Doncaster 15:10

An excellent renewal of this seven-furlong Group Two, helped by the ever-rarer presence of good(ish) ground. The overnight rain hasn’t had a huge effect on the going so we shouldn’t see too many withdrawals.

Limato immediately jumps out, with this his first run since chasing home Muhaarar in his Royal Ascot romp. He had plenty of smart performers behind him that day and it’s the best form on offer. Had this been raced on quick ground he’d be something of a banker, but now stepping up in trip and racing on ground that’s slower than ideal, he looks vulnerable.

Three-year-olds have a strong hand and Richard Hannon’s Ivawood is another who has been waiting for the ground to come right. Placed in both 2000 Guineas and running nicely in defeat to Muhaarar at Deauville, he’s got plenty of class but hasn’t trained on as hoped after an excellent two-year-old campaign. His price of 17/2 is fair at best so, after the rain, we’ll pass.

Cable Bay, Markaz, Toocoolforschool and Breton Rock make little appeal having been well beaten this season by Adaay, who wasn’t great in Muhaarar’s Commonwealth Cup and also flopped when well backed in the Sprint Cup last week. Lightning Moon has been off the track since May and any rain will play into his chances, but the trainer admits this is a stepping stone to future targets, so we can’t be on board.

Home Of The Brave won really well last time out at The Curragh but is short enough at 11/2. His form prior to that wasn’t great so he’s no banker, and he might have something to find with Ivawood based on their Guineas run.

Richard Hannon’s third runner, Tupi, was beaten by Home Of The Brave back in April, but has improved 12lbs on official rating since. He ran a good fourth in the Jersey behind Dutch Connection in-between winning a couple of nice Listed races at Newmarket. After flopping at Goodwood – one of England’s more demanding tracks – he’s been dismissed by the bookies at 40/1, yet remains just 4lbs short of being the race’s highest rated horse. The rain hasn’t helped, but he looks good value to outrun his huge odds.

0.5pts win Tupi @40/1, Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2), Doncaster 15:10

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