The competitive landscape of this three-year-old race is full of a number of improving types boasting decent pedigree.
DAL HARRAILD is locked for favouritism at 7/2 with STARGAZER – the mount of Ryan Moore – and they sit at the top of the handicap for recent efforts.
At the prices, Stargazer is probably preferred, but he’s not guaranteed to improve over the Derby trip. He shaped like he had some decent reserves when staying on in his last race at Goodwood over 1m 2f so he is well-fancied.
He also carries an extra 3lb for finishing a half-length third to You’re Hired in that race, and his jockey was not overly confident about his chances in his weekly Betfair column having already been raised 9lbs for his victory at Sandown before that.
You’re Hired subsequently finished behind NEW CALEDONIA on his next start after the Mark Johnston entrant had taken over a 100 day break from the track. He looked desperately unlucky when touched off by a nose to Zhui Feng on his return to action, a horse that raced in the 2000 Guineas and is currently rated in excess of 100.
New Caledonia is by Cape Cross (sire of Golden Horn) and comes in to this on an unchanged mark of 88. He appears an obvious improver for the step up in trip and is a nice price at 12/1 racing a full stone lighter than the top weight.
We also want to be on the improving filly, DANCE THE DREAM, who looked hugely impressive when finally getting off the mark at the third attempt last month at Chepstow (1m 4f, gd-fm). She had put in a promising run before that at Newbury and was duly sent off as the odds-on favourite.
Her facile 5l success was probably over a below average field, but winning under a hands-and-heels ride in such fashion means it can be difficult for the handicapper to assess. An opening mark of 84 could massively underestimate her and she has a good draw in stall 4.
Her sire was a Derby Winner, and this powerful filly has been brought along very slowly by the same trainer of Sir Percy, Marcus Tregoning. This will be just her fourth career start, so there is any amount of improvement in her. She is in great form and is a cracking price at 14/1.
1pt win New Caledonia @12/1, 15:10 Ascot, Saturday (Boylesports)
0.75pt each-way Dance The Dream @14/1, 15:10 Ascot, Saturday (1/4 odds paying three places)