The Group One Matron Stakes, a mile race for fillies, looks an excellent race this year.
Qemah sets the clear form standard after winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Prix Rothschild at Deauville – both Group Ones.
She’s 7/4 and that’s a fair price, perhaps even a big price, but I think the perception she has much in hand over Falmouth Stakes winner ALICE SPRINGS might be misguided.
Alice Springs placed third at Ascot and met all sorts of trouble in running, yet finished stronger than anyone and ran an excellent race.
She then absolutely bolted up on quick ground at Newmarket and broke the track record.
That run earned her a short-price quote for the Prix Rothschild, but there were only 23 days between races and there’s a saying in racing that you should be wary of horses next time out who have broken track records.
It takes a lot out of them and I think Alice Springs could have done with a bigger break, whilst the ground at Deauville might have been too soft for her anyway as they heavily water the French tracks.
She’ll want it fast, but the forecast has been kind and the Ascot run was on good-to-soft, as well has her excellent third in the 1000 Guineas, so I think she’ll be okay regardless.
She’s 6/1 and that looks big to me – and with eight runners the each-way terms are excellent.
She’s had a nice break and I think that’s the way to go, as her best is clearly extremely good and she’s got to figure in the finish.
English raider Persuasive is unbeaten and has risen through the ranks to earn a crack at Group One level, but at 3/1 she’s no price to get involved with against such proven horses like Qemah and Alice Springs.
1pt each-way Alice Springs @6/1, 17:35 Leopardstown, Saturday
Leave a comment