This looks a trappy renewal of the Sun Chariot Stakes, a Group One for fillies over the Guineas course and distance at Newmarket, as there are an awful lot of live chances and we have significant previous with the favourite.
Wind Chimes has been our bogey horse this season as she was badly inconvenienced when they switched the track in the French Guineas, finishing a narrow third from a wide draw, and her jockey was racing 1lb above his set weight when she narrowly lost the Group One Prix du Moulin at Longchamp.
If she’d found an aggregate of a length across both those races we would be 19pts better off right now, but she’s back in Group One company again for a tilt at this late-season prize, though the secret’s out now and she’s 5/2.
She’s a hold-up horse with a lovely turn of foot, and those aren’t words I associate with Newmarket winners as the track often favours strong stating front runners with proven course form.
As such, I’m taking her on.
O’Brien is back with a bang after a summer bug in the yard, and you can make excuses for almost all his horses that haven’t been on-form over the summer.
I Can Fly was very impressive last time out at Curragh under Ryan Moore and I’m amazed he’s not picked her again, instead favouring the disappointing CLEMMIE, who was a star as a juvenile and, unlike others by Galileo, hadn’t appeared to have trained on from two to three.
The fact that Moore rode her and I Can Fly at Leopardstown means he’s very well placed to make his decision, and there were plenty of encouraging signs by her run behind Alpha Centauri and the re-opposing Laurens.
She was quite far back on the day – her first run for two months – affording Laruens a pretty soft lead, and I’d be pretty confident she has a good chance of reversing the places.
More so than her 15/2 quotes suggest, anyway.
She’s a Group One winner at Newmarket on good-to-soft ground, so it’s a course she likes and I think her stamina is assured, so I think she’s an outstanding each-way bet.
They all have chances, and Billesdon Brook is certainly overpriced at 16/1 on her 1,000 Guineas form, where she beat Laurens and Happily with some authority.
I’ve followed her and Wind Chimes off cliffs this season and it’d be a sickener if either were to win, but the threat of rain is no good for the Guineas winner’s chances, so Clemmie is the bet.
1pt each-way Clemmie @15/2, 15:15 Newmarket, Saturday
Leave a comment