I suspect English King might drift as favourite for the Derby because of his bad draw and money for other horses. At 7/2 I’m happy to leave him alone. Guineas winner Kameko is up against it and it feels hard to believe a horse could break the 2,000 Guineas track record and still be as effective over 50% further on slower ground. We should always be wary of horses following up from breaking records as it takes a lot out of them. He strides like a miler and his sectionals at Newmarket didn’t suggest he wants much further, so he’s easy to rule out for all he is clearly very good.
I don’t think this is the deepest Derby field and we would be foolish to forget last year’s O’Brien domination in a hurry. Last year at Epsom he trained four of the first five including the winner Anthony Van Dyck, and we saw it again last weekend in the Irish Derby with O’Brien training the first four home. Considering he targets the English Derby with his very best horses, you’d have to respect everything he’s sending over, particularly whatever Ryan Moore rides.
I’ve been pretty sweet on MOGUL for this race ever since his Leopardstown Group Two win last season, and Moore has picked him. He’s a full brother to last year’s third Japan, who has gone on to be the best of last year’s British or Irish three-year-old colts in this division. Like Japan, Mogul hasn’t had an ideal prep for the Derby and was well held at Royal Ascot, but Japan improved enormously for Derby day and really should have won. Royal Ascot was just a stepping stone and it’d be a bit naive to rule out Mogul because of that. I’m a little surprised he has drifted at the time of writing to 15/2, but he hasn’t got a good draw and he undoubtedly has a few questions to answer; however, with O’Brien’s pre-race comments giving out the right signals, I’m keeping the faith. He looks like a rock-solid each-way bet with four places on offer, as he’s pretty nailed on to stay and has a great chance of winning.
I was going to tip two in the race and add Mohican Heights, who beat Mogul at Ascot, but he’s been found in the market now and is price is half of what he was earlier in the week. To be perfectly honest, I expect Mogul to leave that Ascot form well behind and it’d be a bit risky to back two from the same form-line. If I have another in the race it’ll be John Gosden’s Worthily who looks very capable of outrunning his big odds. I’ll be trying to snipe a monster price on the exchanges in the morning.
1pt each-way Mogul @15/2, 16:55 Epsom, Saturday (1-4, 1/5)
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