6f Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)
This looks a competitive little race with a somewhat-muddled betting market. The favourite, Pierre Lapin, is a half-brother to champion sprinter Harry Angel, and won his only appearance on the track with ease back in May. That he’s been off since then suggests a physical issue, and he’s got a couple of Group One entries this autumn so might not be fully tuned for this. We’ll take him and second favourite Mystery Power, who carries a penalty, on each-way with MR KIKI, who won in lesser company last time out but can boast a one-length debut defeat by Middle Park Stakes ante-post favourite Mums Tipple. That maiden looks really strong form as the top four have run six times since and have won all six, with Mums Tipple’s 11-length demolition job at York suggesting the standard is high. 14/1 seems value for an each-way bet, so long as there are no non-runners to reduce the field size to seven, which would mess up the each-way terms. I also like Royal Commando – he was a non-runner last time we had advised a bet and hasn’t been seen since – and there’s plenty to like about Impressor’s last-time-out success too, but we can’t back them all so I’m siding with the biggest price.
1pt each-way Mr Kiki @14/1, 14:55 Newbury, Saturday (1-3, 1/5)Leave a comment