Paisley Park has been all the rage for the Stayers’ Hurdle since his demolition job in the Cleeve Hurdle, but I can’t take that form too seriously given West Approach – who is barely a 150 rated horse – has chased him home the last twice.
I think he’s there to be shot at by something with more toe, and ex-Champion Hurdler Faugheen – rated 174 in his pomp – fits that bill with confidence high amongst connections.
I’m having a hard time believing his 9/2 price reflects his chance, though, as he took a crashing fall last time out and is now an 11-year-old, while his last visit to Cheltenham was not a good one at all.
He did bounce back emphatically – to say the least – when smashing up last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Penhill along with plenty of classy horses such as La Bague Au Roi at Punchestown last season, so the machine could still be in there.
I’m a little lost between thinking he’s got a great chance and sentimentality, so his skinny price is the deciding factor.
The sober bet might be SUPASUNDAE each-way at 9/1, who has been chasing Apple’s Jade’s tail this season over shorter trips on faster ground.
He’s an ex-Irish Champion Hurdler who was second to the absent Penhill in this race last season, so represents that form and has more pace than the favourite, so he’s exactly the right type to capitalise if the race is run to suit.
Certain firms offer four places and he’s not placed outside the first three since 2016, so is remarkably consistent, with all his runs this season coming in Grade 1 company.
The caveat is he hasn’t won over three miles yet, but he’s beaten a large number of classy ‘stayers’ over that trip who apparently do, so that’s not so much of a concern.
1pt each-way Supasundae @9/1, 15:30 Cheltenham, Thursday (1-4, 1/5 with Betvictor)
Leave a comment