Golden Horn’s Irish Champion Stakes win was a big boost for Arabian Queen’s credentials in the Group-One Prix Vermeille. He beat a hugely classy field including Pleascach, who narrowly beat one of today’s runners, Sea Calisi, in the Yorkshire Oaks. That form-line suggests Arabian Queen has the upper hand and deserves her position as 7/1 second favourite to the wonderful odds-on Treve (1/2).
Treve was beaten in this whilst out of sorts last year, before bouncing back in some style to win her second Arc. The year before, she won the same race cosily under Frankie Dettori, who was under instructions not to use his whip and avoid giving her a hard race. Despite being in imperious form this season, this is very much a stepping stone for her tilt at a third Arc and she and her jockey might not be 100% both physically and in terms of commitment.
Arabian Queen‘s prominent tactics will make this a real test and I expect her to take the step up in trip in her stride on ground she will relish. Unlike Treve, she’s fully fit and won’t be holding anything back as I suspect this race will be pivotal in the decision whether to supplement her for the Arc. Treve will have to be very good to beat her – highly likely as she’s exceptional – but if it gets attritional I can see the race surrendered with one eye on the Arc. If at the level of her Juddmonte International win, I can’t see the selection falling outside the first three, so each-way is the bet.
1pt ew Arabian Queen @7/1, Longchamp 15:10
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