A fantastic renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes and one of the best fields I’ve seen assembled outside the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Serial-Group One-winning filly Minding finally takes on the colts and trades favourite, however such a short price has to be taken on in a field as deep as this, with plenty still likely to improve and many whose best form would give them every chance.
Minding does boast some of the best form in the race over this mile-and-a-quarter trip, though, and her turn of foot will be a real asset against those probably more renowned as stayers.
I think Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner My Dream Boat and dual-Derby winner Harzand fall into that category, as the latter seems to do all his best work in the final few furlongs of his races.
I’m also questioning the strength of the Epsom Derby form, after very little has come out of the race and made a mark on the Group One races this summer.
I’m fully expecting the horse that’s placed behind Harzand in both Derbys, Idaho, to win the St Leger at Doncaster earlier in the day, and, whilst that’d pay a compliment to Harzand, it doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know and the St Leger looks a weak renewal.
It’ll be interesting to see if Epsom Derby second US Army Ranger hacks up earlier on the Leopardstown card – and that would be a more significant boost to the form.
At 3/1, though, I can’t back Harzand and would much rather side with Minding’s killer turn of foot at the same price.
We selected Hawkbill for when he won the Eclipse, but a disappointing run in the Juddmonte International cast some doubts over the form and I reckon he needs softer ground than he’ll get at Leopardstown tomorrow.
One who did run a blinder in the Juddmonte is Highland Reel, who is, incredibly, a massive 14/1 for this race despite that huge effort – he was beaten by Postponed, who is arguably the best racehorse in the world right now – and on the start before that he’d won the King George at Ascot.
We’re talking about one of the best horses of the season, at 14/1.
The thing is, though, that there are so many with huge claims.
Highland Reel’s stablemate Found also runs and she’s a multiple-Group One winner who hardly ever runs a bad race.
She beat Golden Horn in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, and that surpasses any of the achievements of Minding, who has mostly spent her career thrashing her own age and sex.
At 12/1 Found looks great value, but the most likely result is her favourite, a place.
I’m keen on the two French horses, New Bay and Almanzor, as it’s fairly unusual to have raiders from those shores in a race like this.
Andre Fabre trains the former and whenever he sends a horse abroad it’s worth a look.
New Bay was an impressive winner of last year’s French Derby and placed third in the Arc behind Golden Horn, so a return to that level would see him very competitive here.
He’s got a killer turn of foot and seems to go on any ground so there aren’t too many negatives and I feel like he prefers this trip to a mile-and-a-half.
Near identical comments apply to Almanzor, this year’s French Derby winner whose hold-up tactics may have disguised his superiority in his races.
He warmed up for this with a very-impressive last-to-first win in a Group Two in France, which only highlighted his turn of foot as his biggest asset.
This is an unusually large field for this race and I wonder if the draw will have a big say – and both French raiders are drawn high and wide.
Highland Reel (6) looks the likely front-runner along with Hawkbill (2), whereas Minding, New Bay, Almanzor, Found and The Grey Gatsby will all look to come from the back.
It’s probably not soft enough for Hawkbill and not quick enough for Highland Reel, so it’s one from the chasing pack I’d like to side with.
Preference, then, is for ALMANZOR at 15/2, as he could still be a world beater and receives the three-year-old weight allowance that his compatriot New Bay can no longer claim.
I’d rate Minding the biggest threat, but this race is so wide open that there aren’t too many scenarios I’d find surprising, even if the 40/1 outsider Moonlight Magic took the spoils.
He was well fancied for the Derby and this is probably his better trip, so if he can put everything together he could outrun his massive price.
As much as I’d like to, we can’t back them all.
1pt win Almanzor @15/2, 18:45 Leopardstown, Saturday
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