1m4f Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
Adayar‘s defeat of Mishriff in the King George is the standout form going into Sunday’s Arc, backing up his impressive Derby win to confirm him a serious Group One animal. He has stronger claims than the 5yo mare Tarnawa, whose price doesn’t account for the likely way the race will be run. If she breaks slowly from stall three, she’ll be boxed in throughout and luck will be a deciding factor in her route to the front. Hurricane Lane’s chances have improved with the rain but, for all he has the class to break the run of no St Leger winner winning this race in the same season, I’m cold on his chances on price alone. Adayar, now the same price, looks a better bet with better form and a better prep. Aidan O’Brien is positive on Snowfall’s chances despite defeat in her trial, believing a switch to more prominent tactics is key to her chance. Expect her to make the running if nothing else wants to, but, on balance, her 5/1 quotes are more reflective of her overall level of form as she’s yet to beat much in the three-year-old fillies’ division. Japanese raider CHRONO GENESIS is a proven Group One performer on the international stage and, like Adayar, her form ties with Mishriff after being narrowly defeated by him at Meydan. I don’t think the fact she’s Japanese trained is particularly relevant because she’s got British champion jockey Oisin Murphy onboard and poor jockeyship has been the overwhelming reason for Japan’s struggles in the Arc down the years – not to mention rotten luck with Orfevre. Objectively, Chrono Genesis stays well, handles soft ground, races professionally with tactical speed and finds plenty for pressure, so Murphy can position her where he likes and she’ll win if she’s good enough. A wide draw isn’t helpful but with the soft conditions it’s impact is nullified somewhat. She’s the outstanding value in this year’s race. If you’re looking for something at fancy odds then perhaps last year’s Jean Luc-Lagardere winner Sealiway (50/1) could hit the frame on ground he relishes. The trip is new for him but he was beaten under 2l by a 127 rated colt in the French Derby which is strong form.
Most likely winner: Adayar
Value bet: Chrono Genesis
To hit the frame at a price: Sealiway
1pt win Chrono Genesis @12/1, 15:05 Longchamp, Sunday
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