As is the norm for this time of year, the Welsh Grand National will be run in bottomless conditions and represents a great punting opportunity. In recent years it has paid dividends to side with a horse that loves cut in the ground, races off less than 11st and is aged between six and eight years (before the turn of the year). In a major effort to ensure Chepstow’s annual showpiece goes ahead, this meet has been delayed for two weeks and the Welsh National has been brought forward to be the third race on the card. The race itself is set to be a stern test of stamina.
Both Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice return looking for a second triumph in the race and, to be fair to both contenders, neither is completely weighted out of it. The latter is 10lbs higher this time, which will be tough to overcome, but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either of them from an each-way perspective with conditions to suit.
Tour Des Champs belied a 634-day break to win the trial for this race in heavy conditions last month, having brushed aside the likes of Benvolio and Firebird Flyer, and is well worth another crack at this marathon trip. He finished fourth in the four-mile Scottish Grand National two years ago when rated 134, and was subsequently pulled up in this race next time out when rated 137 and racing 5lbs out-of-the-handicap.
His highest winning mark is 136 and that was a victory in a 3m contest in heavy conditions, so to my mind he could still be relatively well-handicapped up 4lbs to 130. He will have had to come out of that race at Chepstow alright after his long layoff – which is a concern – but he seems to have sneaked in towards the bottom of the handicap and, with an extra two weeks off to deter the supposed ‘bounce’ effect, he is worth a few bob at 16’s.
There isn’t much to choose between Upswing and Cogry based on their latest run at Cheltenham – finishing second and fourth respectively. Indeed, the bookies can’t really split them either now at the top of the market with Midnight Prayer’s withdrawal. Both were staying on up-the-hill in a race won by the smart Sausalito Sunrise, and Nigel Twiston-Davies believes Cogry would’ve won with another few hundred yards, so this slightly longer trip is sure to suit.
Upswing may have had a slight fitness advantage last month with that being Cogry’s first run since falling at the fourth last in the Scottish National in April of 2015, and any cobwebs will hopefully have been blown away as a result. That entry in the Scottish National was his first race out of novice company and suggests connections expect that he is capable of winning a race of this type despite his young age. He is 1lb better off with Upswing and more generally I don’t think the handicapper has got a grasp on him yet. It’s a bonus to have won around this track on heavy ground previously. Despite being a year younger than Upswing, he looks to have been aimed at this and he does possess greater chase experience than Jonjo O’Neill’s entry. That is normally a factor in these races and can aid him in reversing a 1l deficit in horrendous conditions.
1pt win Cogry @9/1, 1pt win Tour Des Champs @16/1, 13:45 Chepstow (Betfair exchange)
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