Bookmakers report 95% of all bets on the final Group One race of the British Flat season, the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, on John Gosden’s Foundation.
The market is so often a strong guide to these two-year-old heats but I am surprised to see Aiden O’Brien’s Johannes Vermeer, beaten favourite for the Group-One Prix Jean-luc Lagardere on Arc day, available at 9/1. The ground was quick in Paris and the trip might have been too short, but he hardly ran a bad race and was eased home in the final strides once beaten into fourth.
The return to a mile with some juice in the ground is expected to play into his strengths so he might be overpriced if still open to improvement. A sound two-length beating of Sanus Per Aquam at Leopardstown has him ahead of his stablemate Deauville on collateral form after he beat the same horse half a length earlier in the season.
Foundation won well at Newmarket with Deauville less than a length back in second, which suggests there isn’t too much between the three of them. O’Brien has again absolutely dominated these juvenile Group Ones this season and with three runners today can do so again.
Jockey bookings and the market do suggest preference for Deauville (10/3, Joseph O’Brien), but Seamie Heffernan is no negative and the selection has every chance if good enough. We wouldn’t begrudge a 1pt saver on the favourite either.
1pt win Johannes Vermeer @9/1, Doncaster 15:45
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