This is a proper Group One with the Irish and English Guineas winners taking on the older generation’s leading milers Circus Maximus and Mohaather. It’s difficult to say who should be favourite as the form-lines don’t cross, but I do think the bet in this race is obvious. KAMEKO shouldn’t be 11/2 and I expected him to trade around 7/2. He broke the 2,000 Guineas track record in June and his Derby effort is irrelevant now he’s back at a mile. Whether he’s the best of the three-year-olds remains to be seen – Siskin is in the ‘could be anything’ category and we haven’t seen the best of Vatican City yet – but Kameko is already rated 119, gets 8lb from all the older horses and has every right to still be improving. If this were a handicap he’d be 7lb well-in with Circus Maximus and Mohaather so the market doubts are perplexing. I suspect there’s plenty of recency bias about Mohaather’s price after his Ascot romp was so impressive on the eye, and Siskin’s short price is fair enough given he’s unbeaten. It’s a very open race so value betting is, as ever, the way forward.
1pt win Kameko @11/2, 15:15 Goodwood, WednesdayLeave a comment