A frustrating Goodwood so far, with each of our tips coming second, twice by a neck. The Qatar King George Stakes is always a good betting heat and a strong field has assembled thanks to the improved prize money.
Muthmir returns to his favoured 5f after his 9th in the July Cup. His best form comes from good to firm ground, but he’s won on good twice before, once this season in France. Unfortunately for his chances, he has to give 4lbs to the rest of the field because of that success. At this level he’s never going to run away with his races like he did when he burst onto the sprinting scene at York last year – when well handicapped – so he looks up against it today.
He’s deservedly headed on official ratings by the Group One Prix De L’Abbaye winner Move In Time (6/1), whose form reads 12221-1 in his last six. He’s essentially 5lbs well in against Muthmir so I’d fancy him in the match. Despite that impressive run, it’s hard to find an impressive form line through today’s challengers. He beat Moviesta (7/1) by a neck at Longchamp, however Eddie Lynam’s 5yo is back at his favourite track, having won this race in 2013 and touched off by a neck in last year’s renewal. I’d fancy him to reverse the form on both Move In Time and last year’s conqueror Take Cover, who has been out of sorts this year – crucially he won last year’s renewal after a win at York.
Curiously, Cotai Glory heads the betting at 6/1 and the bare form doesn’t help to clarify why. He was a course and distance winner at Goodwood last season in a Group Three, but has failed to fire since. On his seasonal appearance he was beaten a head by Line Of Reason (10/1) when receiving 9lbs, in a race won by Out Do (15/2) who received 4lbs himself, which for me is enough to rule both out. Line Of Reason ran well that day under a penalty and his trainer is keen on his chances. The ground is drying fast, and that plays into his hands.
Katawi’s form is sporadic and the 3yos Goken and Dikta Del Mar look up against it. Salt Island looks best over 6f, and Justice Day’s best days have come with some cut in the ground. Veterans Justineo and Caspian prince are very exposed and all are fairly easy to rule out.
1Pt Win Line Of Reason @10/1
1Pt Win Moviesta @7/1