We are not prepared to go against Cracksman in the Coronation Cup and Ajman King may have a lenient penalty for an impressive recent victory and could go in again for Roger Varian.
So we turn our attention to the 14:35 Investec Mile Handicap which looks a little more open from a punting perspective.
Mr. Scaramanga certainly has a class angle in the race and therefore gives away a minimum of 4lbs or more to his rivals. He has pieces of form on the all-weather this season, but has now switched codes for this part of the campaign and may bounce back from finishing last in the Victoria Cup on less than ideal going.
Masham Star gets a run out quickly again being 4lbs well-in, but he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when everything went right for him over 7f a week or so ago and the ground has also gone against him here.
Donncha has run well of late, but has not won for over three years, and the extended mile trip may not be ideal.
So the vote goes to MEDBURN DREAM, who looked a rejuvenated figure over a fast-ground mile at Windsor last time out having been gelded.
That was off of a significant break and the handicapper has taken no chances by raising him 6lbs to a mark of 89 for that facile six length success (second has since won).
Medburn Dream has has been rated as high as 93, but this will take a career best from his current 4lb lower mark. There is potential for that, with this being just his third start for a new yard, the gelding operation and the fact that front-runners can often do well on this track, particularly with some cut in the ground.
His career form figures suggest that he can sometimes fail to follow-up one big performance with another.
But he might be coming into a purple patch and has a lot in his favour given he was also a course and distance winner in 2016 – on similar going – when beating the highly rated dual-purpose performer Scarlet Dragon, so we know he handles the track and we know he will love the ground and I don’t think there are many obviously well-handicapped horses in this for him to run ragged.
1pt win Medburn Dream @5/1, 14:35 Epsom, Friday (various bookmakers)
Leave a comment