It’s the King George later on the card that’s supposed to tee up the Gold Cup winner, but last season it was the Grade-1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase that Coneygree navigated on his way to Festival glory.
This year’s renewal looks a competitive one with five of the seven entered winning last time out, three of which seeking hat-tricks.
The first and at the head of the market is Colin Tizzard’s Native River – partially thanks to the Grade 1-winning form of his stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack – whose beating of French Champion Hurdler Un Temps Pour Tout looks solid form.
At 2/1 he’s probably no value, though he’s still 20/1 in the RSA Chase betting and you can expect whoever wins this race to tighten up significantly in that market – there may be value in that double with bookmakers who allow it.
The handicapper rates him highest, but Southfield Royale – who also bids for a hat-trick after successes at Wetherby and Doncaster – isn’t far behind.
Neil Mulholland’s horse will relish this trip and the slow ground, though he’s turned around relatively quickly after brushing aside Coologue and Weather Babe at Doncaster – a loose form line through the latter and his Cheltenham conqueror Shantou Flyer has Southfield Royale not far behind the best novice staying chaser seen in Ireland this season, No More Heroes.
Finally, the progressive Bally Beaufort (14/1) arrives in good form after back-to-back wins at Aintree.
It’s difficult to measure the value of the form, though the market and handicapper take a dim view of his chances and I haven’t seen enough to bet against them.
Tea For Two has leading claims as he looked a natural over fences at Exeter, but at 9/4 looks too short in a competitive race like this.
As such, it might be wiser to side with the unknown quantity at a big price.
I’m intrigued by the entry of the Willie Mullins’s Net D’ecosse, owned by Gigginstown Stud and ridden by their number-one pilot Brian Cooper – perhaps significantly, one of just two rides for the jockey on the day.
He’s stepped up markedly in trip and grade since getting off the mark over fences in a blanket finish after two miles at Punchestown, so he remains very unexposed and, aged just five, should be on the upgrade.
That he’s travelled over from Ireland for a Grade 1 suggests he’s well thought of by connections and at 20/1 I’m on board.
1pt win Net D’ecosse @20/1, Kempton 14:00 (Paddy Power)