York’s Ebor Festival looms large next week and we’ll be hoping to repeat last year’s red-hot August form, which included an 85/1 upset in the Juddmonte International, an 8/1 win in the Yorkshire Oaks and 10/1 and 11/1 victories on Saturday’s card at Newbury.
Adaay was the winner of the last renewal of the Group-Two Hungerford Stakes over seven furlongs, but he’s decided to skip this year.
The favourite is the consistent and in-form Home Of The Brave for the likeable Hugo Palmer.
Twice a winner this season and last sighted chasing home Dutch Connection at Goodwood, Home Of The Brave is in good form and a deserved favourite at this level.
At 6/4 he’s not difficult to take on, though, so we will have a go.
The obvious place to start is Convey, a horse we selected various times last season to no avail, who has finally got his nose in front at Pontefract after a winless run going back to his racecourse début in 2014.
He can claim a neck second to Home Of The Brave at Haydock earlier this season, so it’s not difficult to see why he’s so short in the betting at 5/2.
I’m not sure that price has any juice in it and this being his seventh start this season casts real doubts over whether he is still improving.
He looks pretty exposed to me and Home Of The Brave is a far more likely victor.
Recent form suggests Markaz is well held by Hugo Palmer’s colt so he’s also passed, and Jallota and Golden Steps are handicappers with a lot to do.
The only one that looks viable to take on the favourite is his teammate RICHARD PANKHURST, who is definitely not a pacemaker as Home Of The Brave is a known front runner.
A very good winner of the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot two years ago, he hasn’t shown much since after injury robbed him of a proper Classic campaign at three.
This season he’s run twice, shaping well in fifth behind Mutakayyef at Ascot on reappearance and then finishing flat last in a red-hot renewal of the Group-One Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
With the exception of Home Of The Brave, it’s fair to say all of the horses in this Hungerford lineup would have probably finished last in that field, so we can’t read the form too literally.
At Ascot he had Dutch Connection just a couple of lengths in front, and that same horse beat Home Of The Brave at Goodwood, so if we do put a line through the run in the Sussex Stakes he’s closely tied in with the favourite on collateral form.
Both those starts were over a mile and I’m not sure Richard Pankhurst truly stays the trip given his best form is over seven – and the same comment applies to much of his family, particularly on the dam side.
At a big price he could be the value.
1pt win Richard Pankhurst @14/1, 16:10 Newbury, Saturday
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