3Pts Win, Ervedya @13/8, Prix Rothschild Stakes, Deauville 15:10

Another day, another high-class fillies’ Group One, this time racing over seven furlongs at Deauville, France. Many of the eight runners have either met before or can be tied together by a string of recent form-lines. 

Amazing Maria followed up her surprise two-length victory over Rizeena in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes with Group One success in Newmarket’s Falmouth Stakes. In a fairly run race, both Bawina and Fintry were a length back in 4th and 5th respectively and lack excuses. David O’Meara’s filly has strong form claims over all three mentioned and, in the form of her life, is a best priced 9/2 to bag her second Group One.

Rizeena ran well in defeat at Ascot but appears well held on that Royal Ascot form, so 9/1 isn’t enough to enter equations. The drop back to seven furlongs looks to suit course and distance winner Bawin who, in the colours of four-time winner Goldikova, looks a player with any cut in the ground. 11/2 again doesn’t appeal, though.

Fintry is two from two over seven furlongs but she’s easy to rule out not just on Falmouth form, but her jockey has jumped off to ride Andre Fabre’s once-raced, unbeaten Usherette, who could be anything. Best priced at 10/1 the latter makes each way appeal, but without being particularly strong in the market it’d be speculative at best.

Odeliz brings no real form into the race and the drop back in trip looks like a desperate roll of the dice to find her a distance that works. Along with Amulet, their big prices are justified and can’t be backed.

Finally, the class horse in the race appears to be the 3yo Ervedya, who used her devastating turn of foot to land back-to-back Group Ones in the Poule d’Essai Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) and a fantastic renewal of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. A hold-up horse, her winning margins are rarely large and may just disguise her superiority in races requiring all the skill of her accomplished pilot Christophe Soumillon.

She only has one question to answer now up against her elders for the first time as she’s a winner in multiple countries, over 5f-8f distances, on ground ranging from soft to good to firm. Such versatility is the sign of a class horse and the 3yo weight allowance should ensure she’s competitive. Of slight concern is a line through Coronation 3rd Lucida, who appeared well held by Amazing Maria yet could have won at Ascot with a few more strides. Again, hold-up tactics could flatter the form and Ervedya had to weave through traffic to get the job done that day.

I expect Soumillon to track Amazing Maria – much like he did Found at Ascot – and use his filly’s speed to take the race in the final furlong. A lot has to go right but the drop back from a mile and home advantage makes Ervedya a confident selection to land her Group One hat-trick. Covering bets are advised on the two principle threats: Amazing Maria and Usherette.

3Pts Win, Ervedya @13/8, Prix Rothschild Stakes, Deauville 15:10
0.75Pts Win, Amazing Maria @9/2, Prix Rothschild Stakes, Deauville 15:10
0.375Pts Win,Usherette @10/1, Prix Rothschild Stakes, Deauville 15:10