1m (Row) Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
Native Trail is clearly the most likely winner and the only things against him now are price and flat racing’s frequent disregard for form and ratings. Objectively, the draw isn’t a negative but it brings track bias and luck in running into the equation and that’s enough to put me off given the price. Recency bias can cloud judgement in these races and my gut feeling after the Dewhurst card last season was COROEBUS was equally exciting. In many ways he’s everything I love to see in a flat horse as he travels all over his opposition, quickens and stays. He too has a polarised draw on the opposite side of the track to the favourite and that can only end up suiting one of them. As an easy to back 6/1 chance he looks the value in the race.
1pt win Coroebus @6/1, 15:40 Newmarket, Saturday
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