Aintree Thursday tips: Pic D'Orhy 7/2, Conflated 9/2

2m4f (2m3f200y) (Mildmay) SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

I’m not sure what PIC D’ORHY needs to do to be favourite here. He’s 7/2 and the clear form pick – confirmed by official ratings who have him 5lb ahead of next best. Flat tracks really suit him and he has the beating of my cliff horse Millers Bank from their Kempton run, whilst co-favourite War Lord is 0/9 in distances over two miles. A case could be made for the unexposed Erne River, but he’s only two points bigger in the betting and the selection has much better form.

1pt win Pic D’Orhy @7/2, 13:45 Aintree, Thursday

3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Clan Des Obeaux hasn’t shown his best form this season and faces a much tougher field than when cruising home last year. CONFLATED has to be a bet at 9/2 given he looked to be traveling the best of the rest when coming down two out in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. His Irish Gold Cup win represents the best recent form in this race and he has age on his side as an eight-year-old. Falling or unseating at Cheltenham has been no barrier to success in this race down the years – in just the last five runnings, Cue Card, Tea For Two and Kemboy all failed to complete in the Gold Cup before winning this.

1pt win Conflated @9/2, 14:55 Aintree, Thursday

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