Iveagh Gardens 1pt win @5/1, Golden Amber 1pt win @14/1, Doncaster 14:20

There is great jumps racing action this weekend with some big names having their seasonal debut. But I can’t help but get drawn to the horses approaching the end of their campaign and more specifically, the flat-racing action at Doncaster, with the pick of the card a Listed 6f sprint.

Lightning Moon has disappointed for Ed Walker this season having had an exceptional unbeaten three-year-old campaign. There may have been excuses for his recent lackluster performances when you evaluate the quality of the opposition. But the reality it that he has finished in the middle of the pack in all three outings, and although this represents a much easier task, the manner in which he has faded when asked a question is discouraging, although it would be remiss to fully write him off.

We can draw a line through the form of Naadirr, who has beaten Lightning Moon twice this campaign by 6l and 2l respectively racing off level-weights in both meetings. Naadirr was also 2.75l ahead of Golden Amber, when Dean Ivory’s filly was getting 6lbs and carrying 1lb overweight in a Listed event won by Polybius at Newmarket. She escapes a penalty and will receive 5lbs from Lightning Moon. This will be her third crack at a listed event this year having ran with great credit when 2.5l behind Mistrusting and Terror last time out. She has continued to improve all season, is in great form, and currently quoted at 4.5x the favourite’s odds with theoretically less than 1l or so to find. This is her first opportunity with her optimal conditions, indeed the softer the better, and with further rain forecast we fancy her to outrun her odds. In contrast to the Godolphin runner she has been finishing off her races strongly and can do so from a decent draw.

As an aside, Golden Amber also beat Iveagh Gardens by 4l to break her maiden in 2013 and therefore has form against the other market principal.  We can’t help but have a few quid on JP McManus’s runner who is an interesting addition. By Mastercraftsman, the pedigree doesn’t scream sprinter, however she looks versatile and has been waiting for the conditions to move in her favour. She’s a smart filly, and has a turn-of-foot that was used to dispatch of Breeder’s Cup heroine, Found, over 7f in May. Her reappearance after a 174 day break to finish second to Sovereign Debt – a decent yardstick – demonstrates she remains in good heart. That will have blown the cobwebs away and although she may want further, she is fresh and has won over 6f before. In general, you can be less worried about backing a horse dropping back in trip on a stiff track when the ground is like this as her stamina should come in to play which gives her a great chance of making the frame.

Iveagh Gardens 1pt win @5/1, Doncaster 14:20 (various)
Golden Amber 1pt win @14/1, Doncaster 14:20 (betvictor)

 

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