A Plus Tard – 10/1
A non stayer on his sole start at three miles as a five-year-old. Now six, turning seven, he might be better equipped. Loves going left-handed and jumps economically like a stayer should. A fair price at best at 10/1.
Allaho – 17/2
Outstayed by Minella Indo and Champ in the RSA when making the running. He’s the likely pace in this race but has plenty to prove at this trip and looks prohibitively priced for all he’s the pick of Paul Townend.
Balko Des Flos – 100/1
100/1 sums him up.
Delta Work – 11/2
Deadly at Leopardstown and the winner of this last season. Improved bundles for his reappearance last year so should again and clearly has a huge chance. I couldn’t call him a big price, though.
Easy Game – 33/1
No obvious reason why 33/1 underestimates him in a field this deep.
Fakir D’oudairies – 20/1
You couldn’t rule him out as he’s totally unexposed at this trip but, again, 20/1 is short enough in a race where others have far more solid claims.
Jett – 150/1
Surely no chance.
Kemboy – 10/1
Could make the running like he did when stealing this in 2018. Proved that no fluke when winning the Punchestown Gold Cup in the same season but hasn’t looked the same horse since. His jumping has been particularly poor but good ground is a big plus. Probably a bit short at 10/1.
Melon – 20/1
Unproven at three miles but would have outstayed Samcro in the Marsh in March but for another stride and ran really well on reappearance this season when third behind Min and Tornado Flyer in the John Durkan. That form is top-class and is recent too, which makes him more of a ‘now’ horse than many in the race. The concern is all his best form is at Cheltenham and the market usually speaks for his chance. 20/1 would underestimate him if this race were at Cheltenham in March.
Minella Indo – 11/4
The right favourite and a strong fancy for Cheltenham’s Gold Cup, but none of his form entitles him to be such a short price here and the decent ground brings plenty of the pacier horses into the race. Too short.
Presenting Percy – 6/1
Bounced back to form with a good win last time but he’s rising ten years old now and taking the 6/1 would be clinging onto past glories, for all he looks to have improved this season. Too short.
Samcro – 11/1
Travelled like a dream when winning the Marsh Chase but was being closed by Melon and Faugheen at the line and, though he can’t be ruled out over three miles, it’s hard to make a case for him over Melon at half the price. Very tempting but the bookies aren’t cutting him much slack.
Tornado Flyer – 20/1
His second behind Min in the John Durkan was a massive effort and it gets marked up for being recent form. Min is one of the very best horses in training and anything that gets close to him deserves respect. Being by Flemensfirth, three miles could very well be within him and you’d have to say the 20/1 is a big price.
Tout Est Permis – 80/1
Hasn’t done anything to suggest he can win a race this deep.
The verdict
A brilliant race with so many chances. TORNADO FLYER is the unexposed angle in the race and very much the ‘now’ horse, so 20/1 should be taken. With stamina unproven I’d rather go win-only.
1pt win Tornado Flyer @20/1, 14:25 Leopardstown, Monday
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