There’s Group One action at Newbury this Saturday as the older horses tackle the one-mile Lockinge Stakes, this year – unlike last – run on fast ground and without a clear Group One miler at the top of the market.
It’s an interesting betting heat with 16 runners to consider, and many horses running over a trip that’s supposedly not their optimum.
The favourite Rhododendron is the first one I’m ruling out, for two reasons.
Firstly, she is too short in the betting and I don’t really see how anyone can make a viable argument that she’s value at that price (7/2) in such a deep field.
Secondly, she’s surely better over further despite being a Group One winner at this trip – and that alone is enough to question her price.
Moving on, Limato gets his fast ground but has some serious stamina questions to be answered, with his Group One winning form being over six or seven furlongs.
He also makes his seasonal reappearance and I’m not sure I trust him these days, as he’s perhaps past his very best – and I reckon he’ll need to be close to that to win this.
Third-favourite ADDEYBB is the big improver in the race having recorded two wins already this season, but he’s not won on rattling fast ground and many are using that as an excuse to take him on.
I was very impressed last time out when he beat Stormy Antarctic comfortably at Sandown, and he couldn’t have been more impressive when bolting up in the Lincoln on the opening day of the season.
If soft was in the going description I would be all over him at 13/2 – so is the fact it isn’t enough to put me off?
Trainer William Haggas has no idea whether he will have the pace to handle a mile in these conditions, but that isn’t a negative and his breeding suggests he’ll be fine.
His dam is American bred and his sire is Pivotal, who has had plenty of fast ground horses win at this level and in his own racing career won a Nunthorpe Stakes – a sprint over the minimum trip – on fast ground.
That’s enough for me to side with him as the unexposed improver in a field full of older, more exposed horses.
Librisa Breeze does have a habit of proving me wrong but there are enough concerns over the trip and ground to leave him unbacked this time, as he’s a horse that needs an awful lot to go right in his races.
I don’t think Lancaster Bomber is good enough – his Breeders’ Cup second last year was mostly down to track bias – and Beat The Bank flopped when tried in Group One company on his last start.
With 16 runners I fancy taking two from the field and the one who jumps out at the prices is Aidan O’Brien’s second-string DEAUVILLE at 16/1.
That’s a really, really big price for a class horse who loves fast ground and recently had the form of his reappearance second to Forest Ranger franked by the winner at Chester.
Jockey bookings suggest he’s third best of the O’Brien foursome in this race, behind Rhododendron and Lancaster Bomber, however his best form has him bang in the mix.
He beat solid Group One performer Poet’s Word at Chester last season and was an excellent third to Ribchester in his track-record breaking Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.
His form tailed off later that season but he was highly tried as a three-year-old and had several trips abroad.
SkyBet are offering 16/1 with five places for 1/5 odds, and I do see him as a potential winner who is highly likely to hit the frame.
1pt win Addeybb @13/2, 15:40 Newbury, Saturday (Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pts each-way Deauville @16/1, 15:40 Newbury, Saturday (1,2,3,4,5, 1/5 with SkyBet)