3m1f (Old) Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
It’s interesting that Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero run both Jagwar and Iroko here. I can’t have Jagwar, whose jumping never seems to hold up although I respect the fact that he may have been crying out for this kind of trip. Iroko on the other hand has become an accomplished staying chaser running a huge race in the Grand National last year and he is favourite for it this year. His form is rock solid and he is the best horse in the race, but I am concerned that this will be viewed as a warm-up for Aintree and his racing style doesn’t always suit this race which requires runners to be prominent to stand a chance whereas he comes from the back.
Old favourite Myretown will run a big race from the front and others that I expect to be prominent include KONFUSION and LEAVE OF ABSENCE.
It must not be forgotten that Konfusion was still entered in the Gold Cup a couple of months ago and he has progressed all season for Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith who won this race with Vintage Clouds a few years back. Konfusion looks massively overpriced at 20/1 here, he is clearly still ahead of his mark having raced to an RPR of 153 this season but is only rated 146. He ran an absolute blinder in the Peter Marsh Chase when beating the reopposing Myretown and Imperial Saint but missed two out and may have just got tapped for speed in the final half a furlong having raced more prominently than the winner. That run was only 22 days after he won the Rowland Merrick on soft ground at Wetherby so he may have been feeling that and is coming here fresh which should be a plus for Konfusion who looks set to be in the shake-up assuming he takes to the track.
As for Leave Of Absence, he loves good ground and won well here earlier in the season over the same trip. It is quite mad to think he was still a novice up until November and has only had nine career starts despite being a nine-year-old. He underperformed on soft ground before running a massive race at Ascot beating a whole loads of these runners before getting collared in the final strides. He only went up 1lb to 146 for that run and was thrown in at the deep end when being well-backed on heavy ground at Newbury against L’Homme Presse and Haiti Couleurs. That was a massive performance in the circumstances and suggested he could be a 150+ rated horse in the making.
Both will do me at big prices against the JP pair at the top of the market but there are at least six or seven in here that tempted me!
0.75pts each-way Leave Of Absence @18/1, 15:20 Tuesday, Cheltenham (1-6 places, 1/5 odds)
0.75pts each-way Konfusion @20/1, 15:20 Tuesday, Cheltenham (1-6 places, 1/5 odds)