1m4f Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
It’ll be another soft ground Arc and most will handle that just fine, with the wide draws not typically as disadvantaged as when it’s quick. Last year’s three-year-olds were very average, with only Aventure getting anywhere near Bluestocking, who wouldn’t rank too highly in recent Arc winners. By that logic I’m looking for a three-year-old that can put their stamp on the division, which narrows the field down considerably. Prix Diane winner Gezora has the most to prove from the Classic winners as I don’t see her second to Aventure in a slowly run Vermeille being a confirmation of her stamina, and her pedigree offers little encouragement. Triple Oaks winner Minnie Hauk has to have the ground as a concern after connections were quoted saying how much she improved for quick going and a strong gallop in the Yorkshire Oaks. That leaves the two horses that fought out the Prix du Prince d’Orange, Japanese Derby winner CROIX DU NORD and France’s DARYZ. Both look like they’ll relish this trip and their careers are on a steep upward curve. Croix Du Nord has a really strong staying pedigree as his sire Kitasan Black won Group Ones over 12f and 2m in Japan and has produce a world champion middle distance horse in Equinox, whilst his dam was second in an English Oaks and won a Group Two over 14f at Doncaster. The Japanese Derby is a high class race and the fact he’s already won around Longchamp on soft ground leaves very few negatives besides the rough car park draw. Daryz was right behind him in the Orange and despite being totally unexposed at 12f, he’s got bundles of stamina and is by an Arc winner and out of a dual Group One winner at 12f. He looks like he’s been targeted at this race all his life and with no concerns over soft ground has to have a huge chance. Both are available at generous odds and rank good bets.
1pt win Croix Du Nord @16/1, 1pt win Daryz @12/1, 15:05 Longchamp, Sunday
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