Who are we?
We are two guys from Cheltenham and Dublin with National Hunt pedigrees but a particular liking for the flat. We’re not professional punters and work normal jobs, so our focus is picking the best bets from the weekend racing and major festivals.
There’s no system
We don’t have a magic formula or system for profitably betting on horse racing, but there’s no doubt that value betting – finding and backing over-priced horses – is the only way to make money in the long term. If we only ever backed fair prices we’d only ever break even, so what’s the point in that? 2pts win seeks over-priced horses and backs them with stakes that aren’t relative to their chance of winning – or we’d almost always back the favourites – but to what we believe is a discrepancy between the price they should be and the bigger prices on the market.
The points system advises, relative to your bankroll, how much we recommend you stake on each of our tips. 1pt being your average stake (e.g. £25) and 2pts twice that (e.g. £50). The more points advised, the stronger the fancy and perceived value. If you don’t know how much to stake per point then let your emotions be the acid test. If you’re in any way upset by losing a couple of points, you’re definitely betting too much. Luckless losing runs are an unavoidable eventuality for all punters, so disciplined staking is essential if you value your sanity.
We’re approaching 1,000 bets since conception in July 2015, and our average ROI is £1.17 – you can find all our results in the Performance section. We specialise in finding winners from the biggest British and Irish flat and jumps meetings, but also cover the major international meetings in Australia, Hong Kong, America, Dubai and France.
- Arabian Queen – Juddmonte International 2015 – 85/1
- One For Arthur – Grand National 2017 – 14/1
- Harzand – Epsom Derby 2016 – 11/1
- Wings Of Eagles – Epsom Derby 2017 – 40/1
- Masar – Epsom Derby 2018 – 20/1
- Almandin – Melbourne Cup 2016 – 8/1
- Golden Horn – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2015 – 13/2
- Vivlos – Dubai Turf 2017 – 25/1
- Tepin – Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile 2015 – 11/1
78% of our bets lose
Betting is not easy, and it requires plenty of patience and discipline to be profitable. Due to our average price taken being over 10/1, on average around 22% of our bets break even or make a profit, which means you’ll be losing roughly four out of every five tips we advise. Sometimes we go through long and frustrating losing runs; sometimes everything we touch turns to gold. We don’t have insider information so just because we’ve tipped it doesn’t mean we expect it to win. We’re not always tipping the most likely winner; we’re tipping over-priced horses. It’s a swingy game and a lot of our profit comes from horses priced upwards of 10/1, so get used to it and bet within your means.
Oddschecker, betting exchanges and each-way terms
We assume all our users use Oddschecker and have accounts with all the online bookmakers, as we do. We’ll always quote the best available price on Oddschecker at the time of publishing our tipping previews, but will endeavour to reference which bookmaker is laying the best odds should that price not be widely available. When betting each-way, we will always quote the bookmaker and exact each-way terms and strongly advise you pay particular attention to those terms as they are crucial for profitability. We never quote prices from betting exchanges such as Betfair Exchange or Matchbook as the best prices often lack liquidity and can change with as little as a £5 bet.
Best odds guaranteed and Rule 4 adjustments
We apply Rule 4 deductions to all our tips, should they be affected, and we also record the SP when one of our selections drifts from the advised price in a ‘best odds guaranteed’ market. We believe this is fair as it reflects our true return on investment. For example, if we advise a 1pt win bet at 8/1 and the selection drifts to 12/1 in a BOG market, we would record 12pts of profit should it win.