1m4f (1m4f6y) Betfred Derby (Group 1) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
I’m not particularly interested in backing anything here that isn’t sired by Frankel or Sea The Stars. Not only do those two sires provide stamina assurances, but they both have a higher ceiling of potential for their progeny versus the likes of Camelot, New Bay and Zarak. Unfortunately that still leaves us with five to choose from. Of those, Action looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order and can be ruled out primarily because there’s no obvious reason why he would reverse placings with Dante winner ITEM, who looks a strong candidate in nearly every regard. He’s an unbeaten Frankel, won the best trial, is top rated, and remains unexposed. 5/1 is very solid. On balance, race favourite Benvenuto Cellini has to be taken on with rain forecast. He has a devouring stride perfect for this race but it’s long and low and might be much better suited to faster ground – which to an extent has already been demonstrated by his Doncaster defeat last season. Similar comments apply to Ancient Egypt whose trainer has sounded doubts over the ground – and he hasn’t shown enough class yet. The leaves Maltese Cross, who has a top attitude and is a perfect profile on striding, but looks far from the finished article and looks more of a place chance.
1.5pts win Item @9/2, 16:00 Epsom, Saturday
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