A mixed week for our ante-post selections, with a couple seemingly dead in the water along with some good news, too.
Camping Ground didn’t stay the three miles in the Cleeve Hurdle and whatever form claims he had over Thistlecrack before, those are now firmly reversed and trainer Robert Walford says he won’t run in the World Hurdle now.
In Ireland, Martello Tower attempted to give 7lbs to Alpha Des Obeaux on heavy ground and was beaten 12 lengths at Gowran Park.
He’s drifted out to 33/1 and will need to improve a lot to be competitive in March; however, he did just that last season and it looks like he’s being trained with just the World Hurdle in mind so retains his outsider’s chance.
Connections have today stated he’s ‘improving all the time’ and ‘it’s just taking time to get him fit’, so I wouldn’t shy away from the current odds if you’ve already not got a stake in the race.
There was better news in the novice department with Vaniteux franking Ar Mad‘s Kempton form by winning well at Doncaster – though it didn’t have much impact in the Arkle market.
We’re on at 16/1 and the current 14/1 won’t shorten up until our selection has been proven left-handed, which is exactly what he’s been tasked to do at Plumpton later this month.
It’s a tall order to beat the excellent Douvan in March, but that horse’s recent Irish Arkle romp really didn’t tell us anything new and the British-trained chasers will be his toughest task to date.
Not a lot has come out of his Supreme Novices’ win last year and second placed Shaneshill was well behind Vaniteux at Doncaster, so there’s chinks in his armour.
Over hurdles, Yanworth has rocketed to Neptune favouritism after a facile thrashing of a very useful field at Cheltenham.
He’s been rewarded with a lofty mark of 158 and that’d be plenty good enough in most years – Faugheen was rated 152 when he won it.
This is potentially significant as it may help confirm our 20/1 selection Tombstone‘s target as the Supreme, and he runs this weekend in a hot renewal of the Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown.
He’s currently trading 2/1 favourite, and if he can beat Bellshill and Yorkhill we can expect his Supreme price to tumble in from the current 12/1 available and confirm himself the primary challenger to the Ricci-Walsh-Mullins domination this race has been under for the past three seasons.
His trainer is confident so let’s wait and see.
Back in Britain, the frustrating Nicky Henderson continues to fret over Simonsig‘s wellbeing and only a solid reappearance in the Game Spirit Chase will tell us something new about his chances for the Champion Chase – or the easier-looking Ryanair.
The Gold Cup market was shook up on Saturday after the favourite, Djakadam, fell in his prep race, which leaves our 10/1 selection Vautour a best-priced 9/2 new market leader.
This is certainly good news and I’d be amazed if he went for the Ryanair now – surely only very soft ground would cause a rethink.
Finally, Trials Day failed to produce another contender for the Triumph Hurdle and only recent Newbury scorer Fixe Le Kap has entered the betting ahead of our selection Sceau Royal, which is certainly a positive with time running out.
Both named horses are in the same ownership so retained jockey Daryl Jacob has a tough decision to make, which could be crucial information when it comes.
We’ll be seeing the current favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov run this weekend in Ireland and he’ll have to put in a hell of a performance to justify his 11/4 quote.
All eyes on Leopardstown this weekend, then.
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