1pt EW Measureofmydreams @12/1, 0.5pt EW Shotgun Paddy @28/1, 16:10 Ayr, Scottish Grand National

The Scottish Grand National has been a graveyard for favourite backers in recent years with horses towards the top of the handicap generally worth avoiding.

However, like the Grand National last weekend, this looks a much stronger renewal with class novices coming up against seasoned-staying veterans and we have a selection from each.

Cause Of Causes shoulders the burden of 11st 12lbs, and surely that weight will prevent him following up his Kim Muir success on less than ideal ground, despite his obvious class.

This is a race in which novice chasers have performed well recently, with two winners in the last ten years coming from those who ran in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

Willie Mullins is going all out for the British trainer’s championship and he enters MEASUREOFMYDREAMS, who finished an excellent third in the 4m contest last month.

Minella Rocco was well-fancied in that race with decent form behind him before going on to win. The runner-up Native River, picked up a tidy Grade 1 at Aintree last week, and two other winners have since emerged including Definitely Red, who won yesterday at the Scottish Grand National festival.

Bryan Cooper’s mount will race on more suitable underfoot conditions today with the going expected to be on the soft side. He won a Grade 2 on his second start at Navan in heavy ground, a race in which Black Hercules fell at the last leaving him clear of Nobel Endeavor and that is decent form.

This is just Measureofmydreams’s fourth start over fences, so is unexposed and looks mighty progressive. He has proven that a trip like this is within reach already in his fledgling career and is worth a punt at 12/1 (having drifted from 8/1 ante-post).

Heathfield and Vyta Du Roc will be popular on the day with some strong form in the bank that makes them appealing. The former comes here looking to rekindle his chase form after two poor shows racing off a featherweight, and the latter arrives with questions to answer over his stamina for a trainer who has never won a grand national in any country.

But, I can’t help think SHOTGUN PADDY must be decent each-way value at 28/1. Emma Lavelle’s nine-year old seems like he has been around these marathon handicap races for years, and his form in them is generally pretty consistent.

This season he has already finished second in the Eider Chase after being third in a Welsh Grand National. His last run can be forgiven as he never travelled in the terrible conditions at Uttoxeter, and with a closer look at his form, he looks to be well-treated.

Shotgun Paddy has never really bettered his National Hunt second to Midnight Prayer from 2014, but there is still time and he may have several factors in his favour today to help him overcome that.

Firstly, he races off a mark of 142 – his lowest ever rating in a handicap chase  – which means he carries 10st 13lb, which pales in comparison to the 11st 12lbs that he is used to lugging around with him as top-weight in these races, when running with credit (I might add). Having only raced four times this season – pulling up early in his latest start – should mean he remains quite fresh for a test like this.

The handicapper has finally eased his grasp slightly, dropping him 3lbs below his last winning mark. The ground and trip hold no fear, and although his jumping sometimes does, he looks likely to be in the mix towards the end and can outrun his price with the benefit of first-time cheekpieces.

He may be vulnerable to one or two of the novice chasers, but that is more than compensated by his price and at 28/1, he’s worth an each-way nibble.

1pt EW Measureofmydreams @12/1 (betvictor paying five places at 1/4 odds)
0.5pt EW Shotgun Paddy @28/1 (betvictor paying five places at 1/4 odds)

 

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