5f Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) (2yo+)
Highfield Princess is an exceptional mare, but she hasn’t exactly been banging in the Group 1’s this campaign and has had a very busy season. The fact she is favourite for this gives an extremely open look to the betting and I’m quite keen to take her on with some unexposed types.
It’s a race that typically has a huge draw bias for those drawn low and the ones that makes most appeal of the low numbers is KERDOS, who put in a career-best performance last time out when picking up victory in the Beverley Bullet. Kerdos looks like an improving colt and will be suited by the going conditions here. He finished second in a huge handicap at Royal Ascot on fast ground when first making a big impression and while he looked a little outclassed in the Group 2 Qatar Sprint Stakes behind Highfield Princess on his penultimate start, he looks like a sprinter that has more to offer and can take this with a nice pace to aim at with Ponntus drawn alongside him.
Whilst the draw bias can be significant in the Abbaye, it may prove less of a factor with better ground and I like another three-year-old in the shape of ROGUE LIGHTNING who is 3-3 since being gelded this year and dropped to the minimum 5f trip.
Rogue Lightning raced keenly as a two-year-old, but has settled much better since being gelded and has won each of his last three sprint starts against older horses a shade cosily on each occasion. His draw in stall 19 would be a death trap most years, but I’m not sure it’s completely out of the question for him as he likes to be dropped in and is strong at the business end of his races.
Both sprinters are nice prices at 14/1 for a race that can always spring a surprise.
1pt win Kerdos @14/1, 16:25 Longchamp, Sunday
1pt win Rogue Lightning @14/1, 16:25 Longchamp, Sunday