2m Lexus Melbourne Cup (Grade 1 Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+)
This is not a vintage edition of the race and it’s been robbed of a number of star performers, ruled out by the stringent vetinary checks which seems to be a bit of a nonsense as times. As a result, this looks more wide open as a contest than usual.
Willie Mullins returns with last year’s favourite (and flop) Vauban who comes into this in excellent form. On his day, he should be the clear best in this field but it is hard to forgive him for last year after just how bad his performance was in what will be similar conditions to last year’s contest.
Instead, I think it’s worth siding with ABSURDE who looked and raced like the winner up until the last furling of the race in 2023. One angle is that if he had been given a more patient ride then he would’ve gotten home and been much closer to the winner as he was the only horse that rode close to the pace that got near to winning the race last year and I think he just faded late on by being played too early.
Absurde has been lightly raced since this race last year, but has since won a big handicap pot at the Cheltenham Festival in the County Hurdle in March before earning his biggest price in a listed contest at Chester last time out. The form of that race isn’t something to scream about, but it was still technically a career PB on the flat and his yard has felt that he is a more mature animal this season. Given that we know he handles the track alongside the fact he is 1lb lower than for his run last year and has the services of Kerrin McEvoy aboard instead of Zac Purton, I think he can run another huge race and go that little bit better.
I also like the chance of ONESMOOTHOPERATOR for Brian Ellison. A winner of the Northumberland Plate, Onesmoothoperator announced himself onto the Aussie scene with an electric success in the Geelong Cup a fortnight ago over an unsuitable 1m 4f trip. Onesmoothoperator has always needed a strongly run race and a minimum two mile trip. His 7th place performance in the Ebor Handicap in August was a decent attempt having come from the back of the field, although he looked like he needed the extra two furlongs.
We have seen multiple Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double winners over the last 20 years and Onesmoothoperator has the required stamina to really go close here. He clearly thrived off the faster conditions last time out and has been given a plumb draw in the middle of the field. Craig Williams takes the ride and I think that’s a big plus for him.
I’m also going to take a take a chance on WARP SPEED running a huge race at massive odds of 28/1. The five-year-old Japanese stayer has been mixing it right at the top table in Japan, he is proven over these distances and is lightly-raced in his career. Warp Speed ran in the Caulfield Cup and largely flopped, but the trainer was quoted as saying the rain that came in the days before the race turning the ground soft really didn’t suit him, he also had the widest draw and that he needed the run off a long layoff. I’d be inclined to draw a line through that run fully and look to his Group 1 fourth, Group 2 second and Group 3 third in his last three runs before that over a more suitable stamina-sapping trip.
Japan has had a couple of winners of the race before and he is worth a go at longer odds.
1pt win Onesmoothoperator @17/2, 4:00AM Flemington, Tuesday
1pt win Absurde @10/1, 4:00AM Flemington, Tuesday
0.75pts each-way Warp Speed @28/1, 4:00AM Flemington, Tuesday (6 places, 1/5 odds)