3m Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Several of these novices have entries in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but first they must compet in the Reynoldstown at Ascot on Saturday. This race doesn’t always necessarily go to the horse rated highest on official ratings and I think all five entries have claims.
Jingko Blue got the better of Lowry’s Bar last time out, but a third fence blunder and a 5lbs swing could see those places reverses although I think Lowry’s Bar may want the ground to be a little bit softer.
The Changing Man has been ultra-consistent and has some really solid form this season. But with three consecutive second-placed finishes, I do have a slight niggle that he can be worried out of a finish against a horse with a better constitution and he is beginning to be a bit of a cliff horse for so many I suspect. Leave Of Absence is the rank outsider, but at 22/1, he is incredibly tempting as I think he is hugely unexposed and shaped quite well on his first start for two years this season. However, that form against Iberico Lord is looking pretty poor now and he is yet to try a trip under rules beyond 2m 2f.
That only leaves PEAKY BOY whose odds look overinflated at 11/2 given he is 4 from 6 under rules and will happily go on whatever ground Ascot throws at him. He could be a much shorter price, however most likely due to his recent surprise depature from the Henderson yard to Jonjo O’Neill he is trading at wider odds. The form from his last chase start at Cheltenham looks very solid as he was giving weight away to Haiti Couleurs and Transmission who both look strong stayers with our old pal, Moon D’Orange back in fourth.
In fact all of Peaky Boy’s runs outside of bumpers have been at Cheltenham so he is yet to try his luck going right-handed, so that’s a bit of an unknown. But he appears to jump straight enough and seems to have a lot of the right raw materials being a solid jumper and with a strong three-mile PTP win on his CV to be a high quality staying chaser, so I’m prepared to take a punt that he possesses quite a lot of improvement from what we have seen to date.
1pt win Peaky Boy @11/2, 13:50 Ascot, Saturday
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