1pt win Rizg @18/1, 13:35 Newbury, Saturday

6f BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo)

The Carnarvon Stakes often produces a few pattern-level sprinters, notably the Champion Sprint winner Creative Force last season.

Six of the nine sprinters entered here are also entered in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot so we will see what they are made of here as this is a great trial for that race.

Tiber Flow has looked progressive in his first four starts with form figures of 11-12 and he is 5/2 favourite here for the in-form William Haggas. However all of those runs have come on the all-weather so he needs to prove he can transfer that form to turf and that 6f is his optimum trip having shaped like 7f’s has suited him well with 2 wins at that distance.

There are quite a few in here who have some decent juvenile form but they all look quite closely matched with the likes of Hierarchy, Cadamosto and Ehraz all falling into that bucket. The latter is probably the one that excites me the most out of this field, but there isn’t that much juice in his price at 4/1 given that this contest looks wide-open.

Instead, I am going to take a chance on RIZG, who is actually the most unexposed runner in the race with just the two career starts under his belt.

Rizg ran once as a two-year-old winning impressively in a Yarmouth maiden on fast ground against several experienced juvenile sprinters. Rizg’s return to action this season saw him just get beaten when odds-on against another unbeaten sort that could be pretty handy too.

Rizg showed he was in good heart with that run and looked like he was coming with a run, but just flattened out and he probably needed that run to sharpen him up. Interestingly, he is also entered in the Commonwealth Cup despite his inexperience so Roger Varian clearly thinks a lot of this son of No Nay Never and I’m prepared to take a chance that Rizg can create an upset at odds of 18/1 here.

1pt win Rizg @18/1, 13:35 Newbury, Saturday

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