It’s Arc weekend at Longchamp and it’s all about the unprecedented, hat-trick seeking Treve. Win or lose, she’s already up with the all-time greats and, in a cruel sporting irony quite unique to flat racing, it’s near-certain to be the last time she’s seen on track.
Unusually for October, Longchamp has basked in sunshine all week and the going is good. Of course that won’t inconvenience Treve, but many of her chief rivals will relish the drying conditions and it’s given the race a more competitive feel. Whilst fully expected to run a huge race, her even-money quotes just can’t be good value against such classy opposition.
Just when everything was going right for John Gosden’s Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes hero Golden Horn, a wide draw (14) has hurt his chances and it’ll require a mighty performance to defy it. We’ve already advised 1pt ante-post, and that’s sufficient.
Aiden O’Brien’s principle hope, Found, has fared worse being drawn in stall 15 and the quickening ground has not helped her chances. She’s reluctantly passed but each-way remains the best value angle into the race.
Free Eagle is another whose wide draw blunts his chances. It’s not too bad, though, as the ground has come right and his 16/1 retains enough juice to appeal each-way. This is a horse who is yet to be seen at his best, with an interrupted preparation before his Royal Ascot success and a race-ending bump when produced to challenge Golden Horn at Leopardstown. Having already advised ante-post at 28/1 we aren’t going back for more, but Dermot Weld’s star colt comes highly recommended.
It’s a tall order to back an improver here as the Arc is the pinnacle of flat racing. Essentially you’d be banking on the selection becoming the best horse in the world. Issue is, we can’t escape the value offered by the Grand Prix De Paris-winning, lightly-raced 33/1 shot Erupt, so we’re going to give it a shot.
A three-year-old with course form, a perfect draw (4) and ground to suit, he’ll have no excuses if found not to be good enough. He lost his unbeaten record to New Bay in the Prix Neil but the very soft ground and return from a ten-week break are readily-made excuses. His jockey eased him home once passed in the race and he looks to have been campaigned specifically for the Arc. Improvement feels as assured as connections insist, with the only clear negative a potential four lengths to find with Golden Horn on collateral form with Derby third Storm The Stars.
Boylesports, Coral and WillHill all go 33/1 and we’re on board. If you haven’t backed our ante-post selections and want to take two from the field, it’s not too late as Free Eagle is good each-way value and Golden Horn’s price is perfectly fair. Whatever happens, it should be a race to savour so roll on 14:55 tomorrow.
1pt ew Erupt @33/1, Longchamp, 4th Oct 14:55
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