1pt win Make Believe @6/1, Longchamp 16:50

One of my favourite races of the year, the Prix de la Foret is run over seven furlongs and often goes to a hold-up horse. The brilliant Moonlight Cloud’s 2013 success is the shining example, but this year’s quicker ground might change the race tactically.

Track position will now be more important coming round the bend and a low draw is an advantage. That helps French Guineas winner Make Believe’s chances from stall two as a replica front-running performance would be ideal today. He looked top class that day but then ran no sort of race at Royal Ascot, which connections blame on fatigue, but was also stepped up in trip so can return to form over this sharper trip.

The market suggests this race revolves around Limato, who was so impressive last time out at Doncaster. His form is top class and the question posed is whether he represents any value at 7/4. Quick ground is his want and his turn of foot is something special. Ryan Moore is on board and the draw (9), whilst not ideal, is not a concern. He will drop in and be delivered late but mustn’t repeat New Bay’s mistake in the French Guineas of giving himself far too much to do – if Make Believe is in the mix turning for home, he won’t be slowing down.

The remaining opposition have class, but there are plenty of easily-ruled-out soft ground horses such as Toormore, Gordon Lord Byron, G Force and Custom Cut. The prices suggest Christophe Soumillon’s charge, Taniyar (15/2), is the best of the remaining French challengers but he does appear held on collateral form with Make Believe.

Despite the 13 runners, it might be a match between the market principles and it’s a tough call between punting on the bigger price of Make Believe returning to form and the shorter-priced, more-consistent Limato. We’d have Limato as the most likely winner but the low draw and course form of Make Believe‘s Guineas success along with his trainer Andre Fabre’s knack for targeting races stands him out as good value at 6/1.

1pt win Make Believe @6/1, Longchamp 16:50

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