Course and good ground form has been absolutely crucial this week at the Festival, with conditions faster than anything found in the form book this season.
Almost everything fancied that’s shown its best on softer ground has been left trailing, with the likes of Yanworth, No More Heroes and Un De Sceaux well-fancied and turned over on Wednesday.
The amount of money placed on ante-post markets can shape them in an irreversible way, long before the weather forecast has its say.
I’m looking for that good ground form at the track, particularly in the handicaps, and four horses jump out in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate with those credentials.
Top-weight BALLNAGOUR was an effortless winner of this race two years ago and prior to this season had been running really well in Grade 1 company on good ground.
I think he’s the class horse in the race but he’s fallen short in enough Grade 1 chases now for connections to lower their sights for the ten-year-old.
He’s a whopping 28/1 for this and has dropped 6lb since going down by just a head to serial Grade 1 winner Silviniaco Conti at Aintree last spring, with that year’s Gold Cup-fourth and Monday’s Ultima Handicap-second Holywell a length back in third.
Given both have had shocking seasons and have shown their best on spring ground at Cheltenham, his profile is so similar to Holywell’s that it’s hard to not be encouraged by Monday’s race.
Coincidentally it was Ballynagour’s stablemate Un Temps Pour Tout who beat Holywell this week, a horse that’d been disappointing all season and bounced back spectacularly to win – sound familiar?
Like Jonjo O’Neil, the Pipe stable can clearly play the handicap game, and jockey David Noonan’s 5lb claim puts Ballynagour right in the mix at the weights.
Lastly, it’s significant this is his first run at two-and-a-half miles since winning a nice race at Auteuil last summer, and he’s been labouring over three miles since, so the drop in trip is ideal.
Pipe has a strong hand in the race with recent Wincanton winner La Vaticane (Connor O’Farrell) and four-time course winner KINGS PALACE, the interesting choice of stable jockey Tom Scudamore.
I’m presuming Scudamore could have picked Ballynagour but the opportunity for the claimer to help his mark might have been a factor – nonetheless, his opting for King’s Palace, who has been something of a consistent disappointment to punters, carries some weight given the claims of the alternatives.
He loves Cheltenham and good ground, and probably ran better than his 6th place behind Don Poli in last year’s RSA Chase suggests, as that was over three miles and he raced handily the whole way, clearly not seeing out the trip.
He’s always been very highly regarded by connections and the loyalty of Scudamore is sorely tempting for a bet – he just strikes me as the kind of horse with a big day in his locker.
I can’t confidently explain his dire prep run over hurdles, but there’s a chance they were protecting his chase mark of 150 in the anticipation he’d improve markedly for his recent breathing operation.
Speculative, but I think he’s worth siding with.
Art Mauresque is another good ground Cheltenham performer and races off a mark he has already won three times off, albeit in far less competitive races than this.
That’s the concern and I suspect he’s vulnerable to improving or classier horses.
Finally – and most obviously – it’s hard not to fancy the favourite Johns Spirit at 13/2 off a vastly reduced mark of 145, which is 2lb lower than his last win at Cheltenham.
The thing is, all his best form has come on the Old Course and not the New Course that this is run over, and he’s been out of form for quite some time now so it’s no given he can bounce back.
His stablemate Holywell did just that, but let’s not forget Holywell placed in two Grade 1s last season including the Gold Cup, so it was no surprise to see him refind his form, while Johns Spirit has to go back to 2014 to remember his last visit to the winners’ enclosure.
He’s short enough in the betting, so I’ll pass.
0.5pt each-way Ballynagour @25/1 (5 places with SkyBet), 16:10 Cheltenham, Thursday
0.5pt each-way Kings Palace @12/1 (5 places with SkyBet),16:10 Cheltenham, Thursday