I’ve stuck half a point on JER’S GIRL to win the Triumph Hurdle on Gold Cup day – Friday.
She’s a whopping 50/1, and when you consider the favourite, Ivanovich Gorbatov, beat her by just a head on his last start – the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle won by Footpad at Leopardstown – the gulf in the prices makes little sense.
Ivanovich Gorbatov remains fairly strong in the market – which in part is due to the large liability already taken on by bookmakers – though his only excuse for that defeat was the heavy ground.
Connections and punters behind him are clinging to the promise of more for better ground, but drying conditions will favour many in the Triumph, and I think Jer’s Girl is one of them.
She was running on empty in the deep ground and less of a stamina test is likely to see her in a better light.
She’s by the flat sire Jeremy, and counts Ronaldinho and Gabrial’s Kaka as two of many half-brothers who prefer good ground to the services of Xavi and Iniesta – and a deluge, of course.
“Ivanovich Gorbatov is 3-1 favourite and we finished upsides him the last day yet we’re nearly 50-1, I think.
“I worked her on decent ground for just about the first time the other day and she handled it all right.
“So at the moment if I was to rank them I would say Triumph most likely, then Fred Winter and then the mares’ race.”
Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Jer’s Girl
Her trainer, Gavin Cromwell, seems to share this line of thought and is leaning towards the Triumph as her Festival target, where we can back her non-runner-no-bet and risk-free in that sense.
As a juvenile she has every right to improve, and with he 7lb lady allowance looks likely to outrun her odds.
0.5pt win Jer’s Girl @50/1 NRNB, Triumph Hurdle, Cheltenham 18th March
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