Rain looms at York and the good-to-firm ground could disappear by the time the 15:10 is off on Friday’s card.
Nemoralia is favourite for this seven-furlong Group Three thanks to a series of fine placed efforts in Group One company.
However the latest was disappointing at Chantilly, a flat track like York, over this trip of seven furlongs.
I’m pretty cold on her chances and doubt they are represented by her 2/1 favourite’s price.
Librisa Breeze has won three of her last five and placed second in the other two, so improving at the rate of knots she could be a big player here stepping up from handicap company.
The 5/1 available is sorely tempting but I want to give BIRCHWOOD another chance after his flop at Goodwood.
Ryan Moore rode that day and gave him a shout in his Betfair column, and he and trainer Richard Fahey, who was amongst the winners on Thursday’s card, both reckoned he threw that Goodwood race away by slipping at the stalls and racing too keenly early on.
He finished seventh of eight so there are obvious concerns, but both Moore and Fahey reckon he’s much better than that and patches of previous form suggest so too – as it happens he’s the highest rated horse in the race.
At 14/1 he’s easy to back, particularly considering he seems versatile ground-wise and would probably appreciate the forecast rain.
0.75pt each-way Birchwood @14/1, 15:05 York, Friday (Coral, 1,2,3, 1/4)
Leave a comment