After a dire week at Goodwood we’re pleased to turn our attention elsewhere to Northern French track Deauville, where the 6.5-furlong Prix Maurice De Gheest is the feature race on Sunday’s card.
Commonwealth Cup winner Caravaggio is the star name and trades odds-on despite meeting his first defeat last time out in Newmarket’s July Cup.
Harry Angel, who doesn’t race today, reversed the Commonwealth Cup form from Royal Ascot with Limato in second, today’s runner Brando in third and Caravaggio only fourth.
We can blame another tardy start as well as a slower pace for Caravaggio’s defeat, while Newmarket’s undulations might not have suited either.
There’s every chance he’ll bounce back here and he is the right favourite, but he’s there to be shot at and there are a fair few unexposed form-lines to chance.
I actually think the July Cup form is really poor as second home Limato hasn’t been quite as impressive this season – he was beaten earlier this week at Goodwood too – and the proximity of handicappers like Intisaab and Growl in that race, as well as usual pacemaker Intelligence Cross, suppress the value of the form.
That was Caravaggio’s first effort against older horses and he definitely has a lot to answer here, despite his obvious wealth of talent.
There are only two that appeal at the prices – and they are big prices – Wesley Ward’s Bound For Nowhere and the home team’s FAS.
I’m not sure how to assess Bound For Nowhere as this is only his fourth start and he was quite clearly no match for Caravaggio and the placed horses in the Commonwealth Cup.
He needs to improve to figure and has the right profile too, so perhaps the 16/1 quotes are huge given Ward is in confident mood.
I’d rather side with the locally trained Fas, though, given he’s totally unexposed and his most recent appearance this season was a sound thrashing of subsequent the French 1000 Guineas winner.
You can watch that race below.
That was back in April when results can be a bit funny, and I’m not sure why he’s not raced since, but it looked to be an impressive performance and the 18/1 quotes are too big to ignore.
By Fastnet Rock, whose progeny have Group One-winning form on ground with some cut, there are no alarm bells around the potential good-to-soft ground and I’m expecting a big run.
Second-favourite and last year’s winner Signs Of Blessing is drawn on the other side of the track along with Caravaggio, and past runnings of this race suggest that’s not where you want to be so their chances look compromised.
Quite simply, I’m not sure Caravaggio deserves to be 18x shorter in the market than the French colt, so that’s the value angle.
0.75pt each-way Fas @18/1, 14:45 Deauville, SundayLeave a comment