I really like ROBIN OF NAVAN‘s chances of landing the Prix Du Jockey Club – the French Derby.
He’s already won three times and placed twice in France – a run including Group One success in the Criterium De Saint-Cloud.
The form of that race is strong, with Epsom Derby third Idaho well beaten and Andre Fabre’s Cloth Of Stars, who ran well for much of the race at Epsom but appeared not to stay, well beaten in second.
Though Cloth Of Stars reversed that form at Saint-Cloud earlier this season, it was Robin Of Navan’s seasonal reappearance and the victor had already had the benefit of a run.
It was a good performance regardless, placing second on ground perhaps not soft enough, and trainer Harry Dunlop has said they’d not worked him too hard beforehand and expects plenty of improvement.
All his wins have come with soft or heavy in the going description, which is a big plus as the Paris area has been hammered with rain this week and forecast conditions at Chantilly are very soft.
I really can’t work out, besides his recent defeat, why the horse is as big as 12/1 in the betting, considering John Gosden’s Foundation, who we know a lot about, is favourite.
We selected Foundation to win the Dante and he did run well, meeting trouble in running and staying on well for third.
Yet the Dante form was not paid much of a compliment by Wings Of Desire placing fourth in the Derby, so I don’t think Foundation sets the bar so high.
Although I’m no expert or particularly clued up on the matter, consensus is the French three-year-olds aren’t much this season – Cloth Of Stars was arguably the leading hope and he’s nothe even running – and Aiden O’Brien, who’s never won this race, will have fired his best bullets at Epsom.
He saddles distant Irish Guineas fourth Bravery as well as 25/1 shot Black Sea, but both feel very much the B team and boast precious little on form.
Imperial Aviator, supplemented by his Qatar Racing connections, looks a threat at a backable price, but his defeat of Derby flop Ulysses doesn’t read so well now and he’s probably not achieved more than the selection has already on the track.
With four places offered by most bookmakers, the Robin Of Navan bet just jumps out as good value and looks well worth taking.
0.75pt each-way Robin Of Navan @12/1, 15:15 Chantilly, Sunday (1,2,3,4, 1/5 odds with Paddy Power)
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