Thirty-four runners go to post in the Cesarewitch on Saturday with the jumps-trained John Constable the current 8/1 favourite.
He is rated over 60lbs lower than his national hunt mark so he could be treated very nicely by the handicapper. With such great value on offer and eight places with several bookmakers, I’m inclined to not chance it that he will transfer his recent jumps form to the flat.
Lagostovegas could be a very dangerous runner in this, but there doesn’t appear to be huge market support for the Willie Mullin’s inmate. Maybe that will come on Saturday, but I arguably prefer his stablemate Laws Of Spin who could run a big race, if his mark of 101 wasn’t so off-putting after his recent win.
WITHHOLD catches the eye at the bottom of the weights having run well on his first start for new owner Tony Bloom and trainer Roger Charlton.
Charlton’s horses are in great form at the minute and he has a big strong gelding in the shape of this four-year-old who is bred – by Champs Elysses – to improve with age.
He won a couple of handicaps during last season including a victory over the re-opposing London Prize, who is now 7lbs worse off. Withhold has the necessary speed, and stamina, to win this with the jockey booking of Silvestre De Sousa as good as any having won this twice in recent years. He will need to guide him out well from a less than ideal stall 24.
Withhold looks like he could be one of the best-handicapped horses in the race off a mark of 87, which could be extremely lenient with the step up in trip likely to suit. This is also just his second start of the campaign so there should be further progress in him as he has been trained for this.
Our second selection is TIME TO STUDY from the Mark Johnston yard. This three-year-old has already picked up a couple of victories this season earning him a mark of 102.
But with the 10lb weight-for-age allowance, this colt by Motivator is able to carry a much more manageable 8st 13lbs and comes out of a plumb draw in stall 12 to boot.
Time To Study opened the season with a very respectable third to Roger Varian’s impressive Defoe. Then a win over 1m 6f on fast ground at Musselbrough followed, before an excellent 5/12 in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase finishing ahead of Desert Sykline. He was also behind the likes of Stradivarious and a few other pattern-level horses in that race so the form looks fairly solid.
His last run was also impressive where he finished ahead of Byron Flyer. A typical gutsy performance from a horse from this stable which came after a bit of a break. His trainer fancies him to stay this trip well and has won this race before with a three-year-old.
He should be on the premises given his running style so at a slightly larger price of 14/1, we are inclined to take a chance on this progressive colt running well.
0.75pts each-way Withhold @9/1, 0.75pts each-way Time To Study @14/1, 15:40 Newmarket (1/5 odds, eight places with William Hill)
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