The best two-mile chasers are set to take centre stage again at Sandown this coming Saturday in the Grade-1 Tingle Creek Chase.
Only eight have been declared at this early stage, with Arkle winner DOUVAN left in for Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci.
He’s 5/1, and that’s a price well worth taking given the holes in the favourites’ claims and the likelihood he’ll be declared due to decent ground.
With a dry week forecast, the current going at Sandown is good-to-soft, good-in-places and there’s reason to believe it’ll be at least that level come Saturday.
Willie Mullins says no decision has been made yet about either of his runners’ participation, but Un De Sceaux, his other entrant, is now firmly considered a mudlark by connections and it seems perfectly logical that they’re waiting to make a decision based on the ground.
That would certainly swing the decision Douvan’s way, so it’s only the lofty grade and potential blemish on his unbeaten record that would otherwise fly as a reasonable excuse.
Owner Rich Ricci lives in Britain and likes to run his best here, so it looks likely.
If that were to happen, the market could take a wildly different shape as Un De Sceaux would probably be withdrawn – certainly eased in price – and Douvan would possibly go as short as odds-on.
I think he’d certainly be worthy of such prohibited odds if, given Colin Tizzard’s Fox Norton is out through injury and the mighty Sprinter Sacre has been retired, his key challengers now are the Gary Moore-trained duo of Ar Mad (9/4) and dual-winner Sire De Grugy (9/2).
Ar Mad is very good but, though they’ve never met, Douvan is likely a lot better – so given he lost first time out last season and is stepping up to open company after returning from injury, he has a lot to prove.
Sire De Grugy is being quickly turned around by Moore after winning at Ascot a few weekends back – an excellent performance – but he’s rising 11 years old and is almost certainly past his best.
5/1 about Douvan seems good despite the likely chance he won’t even take part.
1pt ante-post win Douvan @5/1, Tingle Creek Chase, Sandown, Saturday 3rd December
update: Tuesday morning saw a big plunge on Douvan, into 4/7, with Un De Sceaux out to 6/1, but he’s eased since to 6/4 with Un De Sceaux now a clear 11/4 second-favourite and Gary Moore’s duo around the 3-4/1 mark. Final dec’s are Thursday morning.
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