A big week of racing ahead with York hosting the Ebor Festival and its series of major Group One races.
Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes is often the best betting heat with a big field usually confirmed to fly down the flat five-furlong sprint track, and last year’s heroine Mecca’s Angel is back for more.
She fairly bolted up last time out at Curragh in a Group Two but looked well short of her best when disappointing at a short price in the Group One King’s Stand at Royal Ascot.
Always seen as a soft-ground horse, that performance cast some doubt over that as the ground was very soft and she ran no sort of race, with the spoils going to Clive Cox’s Profitable, who also takes his chance at York.
In the past Mecca’s Angel has been withdrawn due to fast ground so it’ll be interesting to see what connections do should the current good-to-firm ground remain.
The forecast is dry so there’s every reason to believe it will and, for that reason, Mecca’s Angel can’t be backed ante-post with her withdrawal likely enough.
Rule four deductions don’t apply to ante-post markets so, with her potential withdrawal and the likely withdrawal of others, it may be wise to take an early price before the odds tighten after horses are potentially taken out.
I don’t think Limato is ante-post value at 7/2 but I do make him the most likely winner after his superb performance in the six-furlong July Cup.
This will be his first go at five furlongs and that has to deduct from his chances, but he’s so fast and will love the good ground so much that I don’t particularly see it as much of a negative.
However, similar comments apply to GOLDREAM.
Twice a Group One winner last season, he ended 2015 as Europe’s leading five-furlong sprinter on fast ground.
Just why he’s 14/1 in the market is beyond me as he has some of the best form in the race and looked very well when placing third in the King George at Goodwood.
That race was effectively his reappearance after a botched campaign in Dubai where his trainer, Robert Cowell, said various times before his racing that he was failing to acclimatise.
Perhaps those poor runs are the reason he’s such a big price for this – and if they are, they are daft reasons.
Limato will take all the beating but Goldream should strip fitter for the Goodwood run and has to have a far bigger chance than his price suggests.
He won the King’s Stand at 33/1 and was backable at 8/1 for his Group One win at Longchamp, so he’s never truly been taken seriously by the general betting public.
There’s always the threat of rain – and any rain would almost certainly ruin his chances – but it’d take a lot to significantly change the going and I’m willing to take that risk.
1pt ante-post win Goldream @14/1, Nunthorpe Stakes, York, Friday
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