6f Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
There has been plenty of hype around Orazio for Charlie Hills. He was sent off favourite for the Wokingham, but may have been unsuited by the faster going and the return to a softer surface can see him in a much better light. But I rarely like backing something at such a short price in a handicap like this and instead I like the chances of his stablemate, TANMAWWY, who comes into this with a similar profile to back-to-back winner Commanche Falls did on his first winning attempt.
8 out of the last 8 winners of this race have been rated 101 or more so horses rated at the top of the handicap are well worth a close look. The one that sticks out to me is the Charlie Hills trained, Tanmawwy. He is relatively lightly-raced for his age (five) with just the 12 starts. But, he has five successes including victories on soft ground, and was unlucky not to have another on soft on his first start of the season when just getting done at Newbury off an 8lbs lower mark.
Tanmawwy then put in a below-par performance on ground described as unsuitably tacky by his trainer before bouncing back to form with a commanding success at Windsor last month. He looked better than ever and with a 5lbs claimer negating his 6lbs penalty, Tanmawwy looks like a sprinter that could go close here as he is open to further progress.
With plenty of rain expected to fall in the morning, proven soft (and potentially even heavy) ground form is a must tomorrow. Bielsa, Sterling Knight and Significantly could all go well in the conditions, whilst I have to give a big mention to Albasheer who finished strongly in the Wokingham, is still off a potentially attractive mark and could get a great toe into the race on the stands’ side. He was a tempter, but he may need to drop another 1lb or two.
Instead marginal preference is for ALEEZDANCER. The Stewards’ Cup is a race that has so far deserted Kevin Ryan during his training career, but he has fancies drawn either side of the track that should relish conditions. Aleezdancer has a perfect strike rate when the ground has been soft and he’s just a completely different animal when he can get his toe in.
Aleezdancer put in a career best performance at Doncaster earlier this season on soft ground and he ran better than the bare result in a large-field handicap at York as well earlier in the campaign. His last two starts were on less than ideal surfaces with sub-par efforts but that has helped to drop his mark back to a winnable level and he will have conditions to suit in first time cheekpieces.
I love the jockey booking of Neil Callan as he has been in superb form this season with an 18% career-best strike rate. Callan has also partnered the horse to victory before and 10 years on from winning this race with Rex Imperator, Callan can steer another sprinter to big race success.
1pt each-way Aleezdancer @12/1, 15:35 Goodwood, Saturday (1/5 odds, 1-6 places)
1pt each-way Tanmawwy @14/1 , 15:35 Goodwood, Saturday (1/5 odds, 1-6 places)