1pt each-way Brametot in the Arc @16/1 with Bet365

Enable is the undisputed star of the European flat season so far, having landed the English, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks as well as the King George – all Group One races.

She’s proven against colts, proven on all ground conditions and proven against older horses, so her participation in Europe’s most valuable flat race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly in October, is a bit of a no-brainer.

She trades around the even-money mark at the moment – remarkably short but fairly justified given the lack of depth in the entries and the strength of her form.

It’s getting late in the season and it’s starting to look like this could be one of the smallest Arc fields in recent memory, so, from a betting perspective and with the second-favourite 10/1, the market looks ripe for an ante-post wager given there’s always the chance Enable doesn’t make it – all it takes is one small setback in her prep – and the fair chance she could be beaten by bad luck or the toll of a long season.

Chantilly is a tricky track to ride and last year’s Arc winner Found had to scrape paint off the inside rail all the way around to prevail – tactics that can easily backfire without lady luck on-side.

So what are the alternatives?

Last year’s European champ Almanzor has unfortunately been retired to stud after a troubled season leaving – remarkably – Enable’s stablemate Cracksman, without a Group One win, second-favourite alongside the Japanese raider Satono Diamond.

Whilst it’s virtually impossible to accurately judge the Japanese raider, Cracksman wouldn’t be Arc class in a normal year and I have my doubts he will even run given usual pilot Frankie Dettori will be on Enable and connections have been cautious to confirm this his target – so perhaps Eclipse- and Juddmonte International Stakes-winner Ulysses is the answer?

No, despite it not being impossible that he’d run in both he is headed to the Breeders’ Cup based on chat from connections and he probably prefers mile-and-a-quarter trips anyway.

The whole Arc market just looks wrong at the moment and I think the French team has been underestimated – particularly as Enable’s form lines don’t cross the channel.

French Guineas- and Derby-winner BRAMETOT looks too big at 16/1 based solely on his disappointing defeat by Eminent when last seen in a Group Two.

Watch that race below and you’ll see him break slowly and surrender the winner 20 or more lengths to give him an impossible chance of winning – he’s in the silver silks at the back.

He has made a concerning habit of breaking slowly but did so to win both those French Classics in photo finishes, beating some top-class horses, so clearly has a tonne of ability and still has every right to improve.

The mile-and-a-half trip is a step into the unknown, however he needed every inch of the French Derby trip of ten furlongs to get up and there’s no real reason to doubt his staying power given his big price – he is proven on slower ground too, which is a huge plus.

I’m not mad on his current jockey Cristian Demuro, who seems to have an allergy to positive riding tactics, but coming from off the pace is the only way to ride this horse so that’s not so much the issue as his tardy starting habits, and it’s down to his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget to iron those out before Arc day.

Top-class middle-distance French horses are trained to win the Arc and given far lighter campaigns than British and Irish entrants, which obviously advantages them, and it seemed fairly obvious that Brametot wasn’t fully wound up or asked any serious questions in that recent disappointment at Deauville.

Basically, I expect the market to change significantly between now and October with so many of the principles potential non-runners, and Brametot is the one who possesses both the talent to win and is least likely to drift from the current 16/1 being offered.

I fully expect him to go off close to half that price on the day, so, respecting Enable’s massive chance and the potential for a smaller than average field for the Arc this year, an each-way play looks shrewd.

1pt each-way Brametot in the Arc @16/1 with Bet365

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