The Welsh Grand National was run in arguably the most disastrous conditions that you could ever run a jumps race in last season, and just about went ahead in January, having been postponed from its usual spot on the 27th December.
Mountainous prevailed in that slog, and is guaranteed a spot in this renewal off his current mark as he seeks to become the first horse to win it three times. However, with the ground being unseasonably quick (currently gd-sft, sft) and with a 10lb higher handicap mark, it would be a remarkable achievement to see him create history.
The jolly is deservedly, Native River, from the Colin Tizzard yard. The man-of-the-moment and clearly the class-horse in the race for a yard that had a 1-2 in the King George. He could possibly go for the Gold Cup in March as the third-string of the stable now with him due to go up to a mark of 163 in the near future.
I am loath to rule him out and if you want to back him at 3/1 then I wouldn’t try to stop anyone. But no matter how progressive he is, carrying 11st 12lbs, in a Welsh National as a six-year-old (and winning) is a gargantuan task on the bare statistics. In fact, nobody has won carrying more than 11st 3lbs in recent history and no Hennessy winner has won since the 80’s.
Statistics are there to be broken and he has all the attributes to win this race, particularly when you consider he is effectively 8lbs ‘well-in’, which in itself would be enough of a reason for backing him under normal conditions.
However, Hennessy winners are not renowned for claiming this race, and with an extra 3f to shoulder the burden of top-weight, and the fact that his “very best” performances have come on galloping, flat-tracks then I’d be inclined to think there is plenty of each-way value in taking him on with a highly competitive field of 20.
If Native River is due to go off a short-priced and strongly fancied favourite, then surely, CAROLE’S DESTRIER must be in contention, and is an infinitely more attractive betting proposition at almost three times the price for a 0.5l defeat in the Hennessy.
They meet here on the same terms (in receipt of 7lbs), but that was the runner-ups first start of the season and he ran a career best behind a race-fit horse. He is surely going to come on for the run, and it may be that Native River also had a tougher race judging by how well the selection stayed on, and that could take its toll over this course.
The reality is that connections of Carole’s Destrier have always fancied their gelding as a ‘National-type’ horse, and he could have been aimed at this race with the Hennessy being used as a prep run; Native River was definitely not aimed at this race at the start of the campaign, and could have been trained to peak in November and with Cheltenham in mind.
There is plenty to like about Neil Mulholland’s runner and he could improve to reverse the form on the same terms. He is officially 6lbs well-in off a mark of 148 – albeit 2lbs worse-off with Native River on official ratings – which means he carries 11st 5lbs and not 11st 11lbs. The ground has also come good for him as he does favour a little less cut.
I suppose the key questions are: (i) how good is the Hennessy form; and (ii) would Carole’s Destrier have won had the Hennessy been three furlongs longer like it is today – who knows?
But what we do know is that he has already proven his effectiveness over a marathon trip with his biggest win over 3m 5f at Sandown, and he is completely unexposed as a National horse.
If you add in the fact that he finished a well-clear 2/15 behind a 153-rated hurdler in Aubusson in a hot Novice Hurdle here in December 2013, and was sent off an 11/8f in a Welsh Grand National Trial in 2014 then you can start to build the case that he was made for this race.
His price remains a fair, but enticing 8/1, and is by no means too-short for a healthy each-way bet.
The other angle to consider is that this race given the nature of the undulating track appears to be won by ‘specialists’ or horses that seem to perform at Chepstow time-and-time again.
So course form can be an important signal of the winner in this race, and one horse which unquestionably ticks that box is the locally-trained FIREBIRD FLYER, who appears to have been laid out for this by trainer Evan Williams.
He filled the runner-up spot in this race last year, and then went on to win the Midlands Grand National over an extended 4m trip to cap a cracking season chasing.
His prep run last month at Haydock was an excellent return, and he would have won had he not run into a very well-handicapped horse in Three Faces West who hosed up in receipt of 6lbs. That winner has since gone on to hack-up off a mark of 147 by 13l which represents solid form.
Firebird Flyer stays all day and will handle any ground conditions that he is likely to face tomorrow, and in any case the course will more than likely ride closer to soft given the nature of this test.
Firebird Flyer is racing off a higher mark than when second in this last year, but he looks to have progressed if you examine his reappearance run, and carries a nice racing weight towards the bottom of the handicap at 10st 12lb.
There is much to like about this horses chances having ran well here on four previous occasions, and it’s hard to think he will not go close at a generous looking 16/1 for each-way punters. He will more than likely race towards the back, but keep an eye out for him on the second circuit as he starts to stay-on past rivals to launch a late challenge.
The others worth a mention are Onenightinvienna who has been targeted at this but is officially 6lbs worse-off with our first selection racing off a 1lb lower mark; Milansbar who remains unexposed as a chaser, and Bishop’s Road if the ground isn’t too quick.
1pt each-way Carole’s Destrier @8/1, 14:40 Tuesday, Chepstow
0.75pts each-way Firebird Flyer @16/1, 14:40 Tuesday, Chepstow
Coral is paying 1/4 odds, first five places for both selections
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