Over in Paris this afternoon, there must be a bet in the Group One Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud as last year’s winner Silverwave trades 4/1 favourite from a classy field.
My gut says there are better horses behind him in the market, so he must be taken on.
Last year’s second, Erupt, who went on to win a Grade 1 in America, is the logical place to start and has seemingly been priced a little generously at 8/1.
He’s got some of the best 12-furlong form in the race having placed fifth in an Arc and won the Grand Prix De Paris as a three-year-old.
However, he’s so hit and miss and is fairly exposed as shy of top-notch, so it’s difficult to back him with confidence – although it’s easy to say he’s a nice price in comparison with Silverwave’s.
It’s good-to-soft right now, and we should always assume the French tracks have plenty of cut in them even during high summer.
Whether it’s soft enough for our old favourite Hawkbill to land his first Group One over 12 furlongs is questionable, and 5/1 isn’t big enough to tempt me into finding out.
Similar comments apply to My Dream Boat, who is a Group One winner over 10 furlongs and shaped pretty well behind Hawkbill at Newbury when last seen – he certainly stayed the longer trip, anyway.
It’d take a leap of faith to expect him to win, while second-favourite Zarak has to bounce back from a poor run at Chantilly and prove he too can handle 12 furlongs.
Zarak also has to reverse form with ROBIN OF NAVAN from that encounter, and Harry Dunlop’s English raider is a horse I rate really highly.
He’s 12/1 with several firms, but Betway’s generous place terms (1/4, 1,2,3) stand out.
This is his first go at a mile-and-a-half, a distance which raises some doubts around the suitability of his front-running tactics, but connections feel confident he’ll stay and he should run a blinder.
The horse is underrated and consistently outruns his odds – he was second at 20/1 in the Prix D’Ispahan to Mekhtaal, beating Zarak easily and holding off the classy mare Usherette, who was very unlucky not to win a Group Two at Royal Ascot last month.
He also managed fourth in last year’s French Derby despite pulling muscles mid-race, and I think it’s that defeat which burst the bubble surrounding his hype, meaning he’s been dangled at very backable prices ever since.
He was a Group One winning two-year-old but it took until last month to finally get his nose in front when he broke the track record in Group Three company over ten furlongs at Chantilly.
Basically, he’s a classy horse and still has the potential to fulfil the promise he showed at two, and, if he stays the extra distance, 12/1 is huge.
1pt each-way Robin Of Navan @12/1, 14:55 Saint-Cloud, Sunday (Betway)
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