The Coronation Cup, run over the same one-mile-four course and distance at Epsom as the Derby Stakes on the same card, looks a strong renewal this year with four recent Group One winners heading the market.
Arabian Queen‘s 100/1 success in the Juddmonte International at York was this column’s finest moment, but that was run over a shorter trip than this and subsequent efforts over this trip were short of Group One class.
The favourite, Postponed, has comfortably the best form in the race having won four on the bounce including two Group Ones – the King George VI at Ascot and the Dubai Sheema Classic – and the Group Two Prix Foy on Longchamp’s Arc Trial card.
They’ve come on ground ranging from good-to-firm to soft, so at first it’s hard to see any kinks in his armour.
I definitely think he’s a horse best on good ground, though, and it’s been riding slow on Friday’s card – The Oaks time was the slowest in many years – and unlikely to dry out much.
The King George form is weak with the second Eagle Top well beaten on all subsequent starts and none of the other horses in the race up to this standard.
In hindsight it would have been a big upset if Postponed hadn’t won, so I’m concluding the soft ground suppressed his best form and is likely to do so again.
Next in the betting is Aiden O’Brien’s Found, so often the bridesmaid in Group One company but now a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner.
She beat the mighty Golden Horn in that race – coincidentally the only other horse to do so was Arabian Queen – so her best is very good and she acts on slower ground; however she was far from her best last time out at the Curragh when, for the second time in two meetings, she found Fascinating Rock too good.
The main concern is that run came only 13 days ago, but we’ve seen Minding lose at the same meet and go on to win The Oaks on Friday’s Epsom card for the same connections, so ruling her out on those grounds would be folly.
At 7/2 though she’s easily passed as that’s fair at best.
One who will love conditions and will thoroughly stay the trip is the dual Group One winner SIMPLE VERSE, who we selected at 9/1 for her Classic victory in last season’s St Leger.
She proved that as no fluke when winning the Group One Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day, and returned impressively this year when finishing second to a freak performance by the unexposed Exosphere at Newmarket, over a trip possibly too sharp for her.
She’ll have come on for that and it’s difficult to see how she won’t be involved at the finish in this, given she’s finished no worse than second in her last seven starts – a run including two Group Ones.
With eight runners the each-way terms are very tempting and at 5/1 she looks rock-solid to make the frame again.
She can definitely win.
1pt each-way Simple Verse @5/1, 15:10 Epsom, Saturday (Betfair, 1,2,3, 1/5 odds)
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