7f (Row) Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)
City Of Troy is a slight doubt to run as O’Brien has always said he wouldn’t run him on soft ground – especially as there’s a Breeders’ Cup race he could go for in a few weeks. Given it looked no worst than good-to-soft on Friday, I suspect he will run and I’ll use the ground as the angle to take him on with. He did win back in July on good-to-soft, but that won’t be that comparable to October ground and I’d note that nothing at all has come out of either of his races so far and the level of form needs questioning. I reckon ALYANAABI is the one to be on at 9/1 as he brings a high level of form and appears to be improving. The Pat Eddery Stakes form this year is white hot with the winner going on to win a Group One on Arc day, the second won a Listed race before running second in a Group Two, and the fifth, beaten 10l by the selection, won a Listed race by 4l. Alyanaabi himself went on to win a Group Three over this course and distance next time despite breaking slowly and having to wait until the final furlong to get a clear run, and my immediate reaction after the race was that he had to be very good to win from there at Newmarket. I would have Alyanaabi as favourite over Iberian on bare form, with the one unknown being how he’ll handle cut in the ground. His sire Too Darn Hot seems to produce soft ground winners and the same comment applies to the damsire too. 9/1 is a nice price.
1pt win Alyanaabi @9/1, 14:00 Newmarket, Saturday
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